After two straight quarters of year-over-year sales drop, Tesla, Inc. TSLA finally found the mojo back as the electric-vehicle maker’s third-quarter deliveries pushed past the consensus forecast. Notwithstanding the beat, the EV maker’s shares fell over 3.5% in premarket trading.
The negative stock reaction may have to do with the metric coming in below whisper numbers and the company selling less than what it produced. Investors may also worry about best-selling Model Y/3 sales coming in slightly shy of expectations.
The Key Numbers: Tesla’s third-quarter deliveries increased both year-over-year and sequentially, as predicted by most analysts, who based their optimism on China numbers. The quarterly deliveries and production vis-a-vis prior periods and consensus are as follows:
| Q3’24 (units) | Company-compiled Consensus* | Y-o-Y Change | Q-o-Q Change | |
| Deliveries | 462,890 | 461,978 | +6.40% | +4.26% |
| Production | 469,796 | N/A | +9.13% | +14.35% |
Most sell-side analysts revved up their delivery forecasts for Tesla after China Passenger Car Association’s monthly deliveries data and the weekly insured registrations data shared by Li Auto, Inc. LI suggested a strong recovery in the country.
CPCA’s estimates showed made-in-China EV sales of 160,814 units for Tesla in China during the first two months of the third quarter. Out of these 109,683 units were sold in China. The company ran a five-year 0% interest financing plan in China for all three months of the quarter and has also extended it till the end of October. Although the scheme is seen to lift volumes, analysts are concerned regarding potential margin erosion.
Tesla’s China peers reported on Tuesday strong September and third-quarter deliveries, sending their stocks sharply higher.
Reliable Tesla number cruncher who goes by the X handle @Troyteslike estimated deliveries of 472,000 units for the quarter. Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster had called for a miss, as he modeled deliveries of 452,000 units, which could still mark a 4% year-over-year growth.
The model-wise breakdown of deliveries is as follows:
| Q3’24 (units) | Y-o-Y Change | Q-o-Q Change | |
| Model 3/Y | 439,975 | +4.99% | +4.16% |
| Other Models* | 22,915 | +43.35% | +6.33% |
Tesla hasn’t reported standalone numbers for Cybertrucks ever since its rollout in late 2023.
See Also: How To Buy Tesla Stock
Energy Storage: Tesla said it deployed 6.9 Gigawatt-hours of energy storage products in the third quarter compared to 9.4 GWh at the end of the second quarter.
Look Ahead: The next major catalysts for Tesla are the Robotaxi unveil event, which is scheduled for Oct. 10, and the third-quarter earnings report, which will drop on Oct. 23.
Analysts hold mixed views regarding the 10/10 event due to be held in Warner Brothers studios. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, a Tesla bull, said the company would merely demo the latest iteration of FSD and a fully autonomous ‘cyber-cab,’ mostly in a closed/semi-closed course. Future Fund LLC’s Gary Black harbors hope that Elon Musk could shed some details regarding the sub-$30K EV that is in the works.
That said, most analysts and industry watchers are positive about Robotaxi’s potential in the long term.
The strong third-quarter sales bodes well for the quarterly results due later this month. Analysts, on average, expect the company to report earnings of 59 cents per share, down from 66 cents per share a year ago. The consensus estimate for revenue is $25.53 billion, a 15.6% increase versus last year.
Ahead of the report, Black said a big delivery beat could change the narrative on Tesla stock and lead to a change in the two-year trajectory of negative earnings revisions.
Tesla Stock: The EV maker’s stock has been stuck in a rut ever since it pulled back from a record high hit in late 2021, mirroring its faltering fundamentals. In the run-up to the deliveries report, the stock began to gain some momentum amid positive expectations but pulled back on Tuesday amid the broader market weakness.
Tesla ended Tuesday’s session down 1.38% to $258.02, according to Benzinga Pro data. For the year, the stock is up 3.84%, underperforming the S&P 500, which is up about 20%.
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