Donald Trump Takes 8-Point Election Betting Odds Lead Over Kamala Harris: 'More Accurate Than Polls,' Elon Musk Claims (UPDATED)

Editor’s note: The story has been updated to reflect the latest movement in the election betting markets.

Former President Donald Trump has taken a 53.6% to 45.8% lead on prediction market Polymarket in the race for the 2024 presidential election.

What Happened: Over $600 million have been traded on the remaining two candidates as Trump continues to build a slender lead in the election odds.

Odds aggregator site electionodds.com shows Vice President Kamala Harris now trailing the former President by 49.1% to 50.1% across different betting markets. The former President also holds a 281-257 electoral college votes lead, according to current aggregated odds.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who appeared with Trump at a rally on Saturday in Butler, PA, highlighted this lead on X, saying it is “more accurate than polls, as actual money on the line.” The billionaire entrepreneur did not expand on his reasoning for this argument.

Trump now leading Kamala by 3% in betting markets. More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line. https://t.co/WrsqZ2z8pp

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 7, 2024

Also Read: Bitcoin ‘Not A Safe Haven’ But Rising Trump Odds Could Fuel A Rally: Standard Chartered

Why It Matters: According to Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a self-proclaimed non-partisan think tank, U.S. national debt would increase by $3.5 trillion through 2035 in case of a Harris victory and by $7.5 trillion in case of a Trump win. The analysis is based on the respective candidates' tax and spending plans.

A recent Bernstein report forecasted that Bitcoin BTC/USD could spike to $80,000-$90,000 if Trump wins and drop to $30,000-$40,000 if Harris wins. The target is based on the Trump's evident support for cryptocurrencies and pledge to make U.S. the "bitcoin and crypto capital of the world."

Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin to peak to all-time high by year-end regardless of who wins the election but projects qa $125,000 target in case of a Trump victory and only a $75,000 target if the Vice President wins the election.

What’s Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.

Read Next: 

• Trump Vs. Harris: Who Do Voters Trust More To Handle Crypto Policies?

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