What Goes Down Must Go Up': Real Estate Star Ryan Serhant Sees Market Rebound After 2024 Election

Real estate broker Ryan Serhant predicts a housing market upturn following the presidential election.

During an appearance on Fox Business last week, Serhant described a market in waiting. “Inventory is up. Interest rates are at 20-month lows, but buyers are still sitting on the sidelines,” he told the Fox Business host. “No one wants to catch a falling knife, but also no one wants to jump into a speeding car.”

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Despite current market hesitation, Serhant holds an optimistic outlook. He points to strong fundamentals, noting that pricing is up 6% year over year. The real estate broker, known for his role on Million Dollar Listing, believes the November election will be a turning point. “I think people are waiting to see what happens in November and that will take us into a roaring 2025,” he said.

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Serhant’s forecast hinges on expectations of further rate declines. He suggests that once mortgage rates enter the five percent range, with the possibility of buying down to the high fours, market liquidity will improve across all buyer categories – from institutional purchasers to individual homeowners.

However, current market dynamics present challenges. Serhant said that 90% of existing home loans carry interest rates below 5%, creating a lock-in effect. “Most homeowners are sitting there and saying, ‘You know what, I’m gonna wait a little bit longer,'” he said. That hesitation has led to historically low transaction volumes, with Serhant estimating only 2.5% of U.S. homes will change hands this year.

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Not all experts share Serhant’s bullish outlook. Nick Gerli, CEO of Reventure Consulting, said the market is showing problems even as mortgage rates edge lower.

Despite the rate decline, Gerli said homebuyer demand remains depressed, with mortgage applications down 57% from their pandemic peak and 43% below pre-pandemic levels.

Industry expectations of a quick rebound in response to falling rates have not materialized.

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Gerli said that three factors behind the sluggish demand are affordability constraints, buyer exhaustion following the pandemic boom and record-high pessimism about the housing market. Recent data from the University of Michigan shows that 87% of consumers believe it’s a bad time to buy a home – surpassing even the early 1980s, when mortgage rates hit 18%.

According to Redfin data for August, the current median U.S. home list price is about $432,849. That elevated price point and mortgage rates of around 6.62% for a 30-year loan create affordability challenges for many Americans.

As the market approaches a potential inflection point, buyers and industry observers remain focused on key indicators – interest rate movements, election outcomes and broader economic policies that could influence housing affordability in the coming year.

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