Elon Musk To End Year As Richest Man In The World? Prediction Market Says Yes, Higher Chance Than Larry Ellison Or Jensen Huang

Tesla Inc TSLA CEO Elon Musk is the world's richest person and has watched his wealth climb in 2024 despite the price of Tesla stock falling.

A prediction market allows bettors to wager on if Musk will remain the world's richest man at the end of the year.

What Happened: The title of the world's richest man has changed hands several times over the last years, with Musk the most frequent billionaire to top the list.

Musk regained the title last year from LVMH LVMUY CEO Bernard Arnault who had held the title. Musk also briefly lost the title earlier this year to Amazon.com AMZN founder Jeff Bezos.

The current richest people in the world list looks like this, as reported by Bloomberg, with their year-to-date change in parentheses:

1. Elon Musk: $255 billion (+$25.7 billion)
2. Jeff Bezos: $210 billion (+$32.7 billion)
3. Mark Zuckerberg: $207 billion (+$78.5 billion)
4. Bernard Arnault: $190 billion (-$17.3 billion)

The list also includes NVIDIA Corporation NVDA CEO Jensen Huang at 11^th with a wealth of $118 billion. Huang's year-to-date gain of $73.8 billion trails only Zuckerberg for best 2024 performance.

Oracle Corporation ORCL co-founder and Chief Technology Officer Larry Ellison has also been listed in the top five richest people and even passed Bezos for second place briefly last month.

A prediction market on Kalshi allows people to bet on who will be the richest person at the end of 2024. Here are the current odds:

• Elon Musk: 82%
• Larry Ellison: 11%
• Mark Zuckerberg: 10%
• Jeff Bezos: 6%
• Bernard Arnault and Family: 2%
• Jensen Huang: 2%

The odds favor Musk by a significant margin to retain the title, which comes with Tesla shares down 10% in 2024.

Significant gains for Meta Platforms META and Oracle have helped move Zuckerberg and Ellison respectively up the list and likely are why their odds are higher than Bezos and other names that often come close to topping Musk.

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Why It's Important: Kalshi is one of several prediction markets that have been allowing wagers on financial outcomes and also elections. The company recently resumed accepting bets on the 2024 election after a federal appeals court lifted a prior ban that came as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) contested the markets.

The Kalshi market for the world's richest person in the world has over $72,000 in wagers, which may pale in comparison to some election prediction markets.

A title of richest man in the world has been something often talked about and a title that for many marks accomplishment and success of the companies they founded or helped run.

The 10 richest people in the world at the end of 2023 were worth $1.47 trillion, adding $465.4 billion to their wealth, more than the valuation of retail giant Walmart at the time.

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