Alphabet, Inc.'s GOOG GOOGL Google could "very likely" be banned from paying Apple, Inc. AAPL to be the default search engine on iPhones, according to analysts at Jeffries.
The Details: Judge Amit Mehta ruled in August that Google has an illegal monopoly over online search in a landmark antitrust case brought by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ).
The judge specifically highlighted the company's policy of paying billions annually to keep its search engine's default status on devices as an anticompetitive practice. He questioned why Google would pay billions if it truly had the best search engine and called the situation “odd."
The DOJ said in a filing last week it is considering asking for the breakup of Google through the divestment of assets that could include its Android operating system, Google Play app store or Google Ads. Apple could also be required to prompt users to choose their preferred search engine rather than setting a default which would terminate the existing agreement between Google and Apple, set to run until 2026.
Jefferies estimates Google's $25 billion deal equates to 20% of Apple's pretax profit, or about 6.3% of total revenue, according to a report from Fortune. Losing the Google deal could drop Apple's stock price by as much as 11%, the analysts said.
However, a ruling "could take between three and eight years for the final settlement to be decided based on precedents," the Jefferies analysts said, giving Apple enough time to replace the Google search revenue stream. Google and Apple could also develop a revenue share agreement, as long as it is not exclusive.
The judge is expected to announce remedies in the summer of 2025, though Google has said it plans to appeal the ruling. The broader tech sector and global regulatory agencies are watching as the legal decision will have wide-reaching implications across the industry.
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