Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have laid out sweeping plans to win voters, but a new report reveals that these promises come with staggering costs, no matter who takes office. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), Harris's proposals could increase the national debt by $3.5 trillion, while Trump's could balloon it by $7.5 trillion over the next decade.
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The CRFB's analysis pulls from campaign platforms, speeches and other public materials. Still, it comes with a major caveat: neither candidate has provided enough detail to predict the exact impact accurately.
“There's significant uncertainty,” noted the committee. Estimates range widely, with Harris's plan potentially adding as much as $8.1 trillion to the debt and Trump's, anywhere between $1.5 trillion and $15.2 trillion.
Experts across the board, including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, have sounded alarms on the growing national debt, which currently stands at a record $35.7 trillion. "We're already spending more on interest than on Medicare and defense and this high debt really kind of crowds out everything else," Marc Goldwein, the CRFB’s senior policy director, told CNN.
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"This crowding out effect weakens our ability to grow economically and invest in the future." The underlying issue, as Goldwein pointed out, is that both Harris's and Trump's proposals come with hefty price tags and minimal plans to cover the costs.
Trump's campaign, however, was quick to push back against these figures. Brian Hughes, a senior advisor, defended the former president's 2017 tax cuts, saying, "Trump's tax reform laid the groundwork for substantial economic growth, driving government revenue upwards, not down." Trump's camp also highlighted its focus on eliminating wasteful spending and lowering inflation as key tools to rein in the national debt.
On the other hand, Harris's team emphasized the flexibility of her plans. According to studies from the Tax Policy Center, Harris's proposals could shrink the deficit depending on how much of Joe Biden's tax policies she adopts.
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Her biggest ticket item, the extension of the 2017 tax cuts for those earning under $400,000, would cost $3 trillion. Harris plans to raise corporate taxes to 28% and boost taxes on the wealthy to help foot the bill.
Trump's plan, however, leans heavily on extending his 2017 tax cuts and adding new tax breaks, including eliminating the $10,000 cap on state and local tax deductions. According to CRFB, Trump's full tax agenda would cost nearly $5.4 trillion over the next decade. Additionally, he plans to introduce tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese imports.
But experts warn that these could come with a steep price. According to a paper published by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a trade war could backfire, raising consumer costs and dragging down the economy.
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