Bettors on the social prediction market Manifold believed late technologist Len Sassaman to be Bitcoin's BTC/USD mysterious creator Satoshi Nakamoto, as estimates on the play money-powered platform fluctuate wildly.
What happened: At the time of writing, Sassaman’s odds were 26%, as the cryptographer and privacy champion emerged as the platform’s new favorite.
However, only a few hours ago, the odds were in favor of Peter Todd, the Bitcoin Core engineer identified as Satoshi in the recent HBO documentary “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery.” Todd has categorically denied these claims.
Sassasman's odds reached an all-time high of 46% when the trailer of the documentary was released in the first week of October. This was also the time when punters on cryptocurrency-based Polymarket bet heavily in favor of him.
Todd's odds reached 71% on Oct. 14, before nearly halving five days later, and 11% as of this writing.
Why It Matters: Manifold is a social prediction market where users can bet on events and compete with friends for free.
Users can either place bets through "Mana", a play-money currency, or “Sweepcash," which can be redeemed for real money.
A user, John Vandivier, while replying to an X post by economist Robin Hanson, said that estimates on the platform aren't stable, noting how odds shifted in favor of Sassasman from Todd in no time.
Photo via Shutterstock
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