Toying With Expectations: Mattel's Q3 Miss Leads To Price Target Tweaks

Mattel, Inc. MAT shares are trading higher on Thursday. Analysts adjusted the company’s price target following the third-quarter results reported on Wednesday.

Mattel reported EPS of $1.09 per share, which beat the analyst consensus estimate of 95 cents. Quarterly revenue came in at $1.843 billion, which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $1.858 billion.

Mattel revised FY24 net sales guidance to comparable-slightly down in constant currency while maintaining adjusted EPS outlook at $1.35 and $1.45 versus the $1.44 estimate.

Morgan Stanley analyst Megan C Alexander increased the price target to $22 from $21 and reiterated the Equal-weight rating.

The analyst writes that strong third-quarter results were slightly overshadowed by fourth-quarter EPS guidance, which is implied to be well below expectations.

While this could be a conservative estimate, it’s too soon to assess, especially with critical selling weeks approaching amid a shorter holiday season, an impending election, and ongoing consumer uncertainty, adds the analyst.

The analyst says that while they still anticipate demand drivers to strengthen in 2025, particularly with potential tent-pole movie releases, it’s too early to make a decisive call, especially in an election year where tariff risks loom.

Consequently, for the fourth quarter, Alexander now projects sales of $1.642 billion (down from $1.677 billion) and EPS of $0.18 (previously $0.41).

For FY24, sales forecast slightly decreases to $5.374 billion (from $5.390 billion) and EPS slightly declines to $1.44 (from $1.45), adds the analyst. For FY25, the analyst estimate sales of $5.498 billion (down from $5.514 billion) and EPS at $1.47 (down from $1.53).

Goldman Sachs analyst Stephen Laszczyk lowered the price target to $22 (versus $23 prior) and maintained the Buy rating.

The analyst modestly lowered 2024+ revenue outlook due to the third-quarter miss, reduced revenue guidance, and limited visibility into long-term growth.

However, Laszczyk largely maintained the adjusted EPS estimates, reflecting third-quarter outperformance and continued cost efficiencies.

The analyst also slightly reduced the share repurchase outlook given the slower pace in the third quarter.

D A Davidson analyst Linda Bolton Weiser says that the sales guidance seems ambitious, but the upper end of the EPS range at $1.45 appears achievable.

Notably, the analyst reduced the 2025 EPS estimate by $0.06 to $1.52 and adjusted sales estimate to -4.9% Y/Y (from -0.4%) for fourth-quarter and -2.5% Y/Y (from -0.1%) for 2024.

EPS guidance remains at $1.35-$1.45, now with a tax rate of 21%-22%, noted the analyst. The analyst maintained the price target at $27 with a Buy rating.

Stifel analyst Drew E. Crum reaffirmed the Buy rating and the price target of $23. The analyst writes that key financial metrics were mixed compared to Street estimates, influenced by year-ago results from the Barbie movie.

A weaker top line was more than offset by significant improvement in adjusted gross margins, driving earnings growth, adds the analyst.

Crum forecasts FY24 adjusted EPS of $1.44, slightly higher than previous estimate of $1.41 and net revenue of $5.382 billion (-1% y/y; down from $5.420 billion prior view).

For 2025, the analyst estimate adjusted EPS of $1.61 (+12%; vs. $1.55 previously) and revenue of $5.590 billion (+4%; vs. $5.634 billion prior).

Price Action: MAT shares are up 3.69% at $18.44 at the last check Thursday.

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