The launch of Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 on Game Pass is expected to affect the game's sales, but industry experts also believe it could significantly boost Xbox's subscription numbers.

Analysts predict millions of new subscribers will join Microsoft Corp.‘s MSFT Xbox's service to access the title, though the long-term success of the strategy remains uncertain.

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According to analysts who spoke with GamesIndustry.biz, the real test for Xbox will come after the game's launch on Oct. 25, when the challenge will be to retain these new subscribers.

Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush, estimates putting Call of Duty on Game Pass could lead to up to six million lost sales, based on the assumption that around 25% of Game Pass subscribers would have purchased the game anyway. However, Pachter also believes the move could drive between three and four million new sign-ups to Game Pass.

"Good overall for Microsoft and for consumers," Pachter told GamesIndustry.biz. "But the headline will say, ‘Call of Duty sales are down.'"

In a survey conducted with readers of IGN, 70% of those who plan to play Black Ops 6 said they are already Game Pass subscribers and intend to access the game through the service. Nearly 8% indicated they plan to subscribe to Game Pass specifically for the new Call of Duty release.

Analysts Predict Monetization Will Be Key For Microsoft

Piers Harding-Rolls, chief games analyst at Ampere, offers a more cautious outlook. He predicts a 10% increase in Game Pass Ultimate subscriptions, which amounts to about 2.5 million new users. However, Harding-Rolls points out that not all of these will be new users, as some will likely be upgrading from lower-tier subscriptions like Game Pass Core or Standard.

Harding-Rolls adds that Microsoft may lose premium game sales, but there is potential to offset those losses through other forms of monetization, especially given the live-service nature of Call of Duty.

"The removal of the 14-day $1 trial offer is an indication that Microsoft needs to maximize its subscription revenue," he said, referring to the added cost of including a major title like Call of Duty at launch.

While the game's inclusion on Game Pass might prove costly for Microsoft in the short term, Harding-Rolls noted the shift from traditional sales to in-game monetization could help the company recover some of that investment. He expects platforms like Xbox and PC to be crucial for Black Ops 6's audience expansion, while cloud gaming's role in this launch remains less clear.

Brett Hunt, a market analyst at Newzoo, believes Black Ops 6 will perform better than last year's Modern Warfare 3, not only because of its Game Pass launch but also due to its standalone campaign and new gameplay mechanics.

"This is the most Call of Duty has been reinvigorated in recent years," Hunt told GamesIndustry.biz.

As for the end of Activision's content exclusivity agreement with PlayStation, some analysts speculate that Call of Duty could shift players toward Xbox, given that Game Pass is not available on PlayStation. Harding-Rolls suggests the impact may be limited by the game's cross-platform play features, which allow users to play on multiple devices with a single account.

Long-Term Subscriber Retention Is Xbox's Biggest Challenge

Dr. Serkan Toto, an analyst at Katan Games, believes there is significant pressure on Xbox to make this strategy work.

"We all know that Microsoft's gaming unit has not been growing as expected," Toto said. "If Call of Duty doesn't make the Game Pass business model work, what possibly can?"

Pachter remains optimistic, noting that Call of Duty players tend to remain engaged with the game for longer periods due to its multiplayer features and regular updates.

"Call of Duty players generally play for much longer because of multiplayer and frequent map drops," he added.

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Photo: Courtesy Activision.