Is Bitcoin's 'Trump Trade' Still Valid? It's Complicated But Watch These Two Data Points

Bitcoin's BTC/USD price movement appears increasingly detached from the rising odds of Donald Trump's 2024 election chances, even as his appearance on “The Joe Rogan Experience” podcast propels him to a leading position on Polymarket.

What Happened: Following the interview, which garnered significant attention with over 32 million views, Trump's election odds on Polymarket surged to 66.3%, while Kamala Harris's odds stand at 33.7%.

However, despite the market hype labeling Bitcoin as the "Trump Trade," BTC's performance has been relatively subdued, showing only an 8% gain in October—a month historically marked by stronger rallies, averaging around a 21% increase.

Trump's Rogan interview took a deep dive into topics ranging from electoral reform and tax policies to the potential existence of extraterrestrial life.

Addressing claims about the 2020 election, Trump repeated his view that the election was “stolen” due to legislative changes that were implemented during the pandemic without full legislative approval.

The interview also touched on Trump's pledge to end federal income tax, a stance that could carry significant economic implications, though it would likely face formidable political and fiscal hurdles.

By appearing on Rogan's podcast, Trump tapped into an influential platform targeting a younger, predominantly male demographic, which his campaign views as fertile ground for potential new supporters.

Also Read: Federal Probe Into Tether Examines Potential Sanctions And Money-Laundering Breaches: WSJ

According to analysts at QCP Capital, BTC's price movement diverging from Trump's rising popularity on betting platforms suggests a weakening correlation between Bitcoin's valuation and Trump's election odds.

This divergence indicates that broader economic indicators, rather than political sentiment alone, may be driving Bitcoin's current performance.

With the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data and Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) reports due later this week, analysts caution that these figures could weigh more heavily on Bitcoin's price than political developments, even as market watchers speculate on whether BTC will break the $70,000 threshold.

What’s Next: The shifting dynamics of Bitcoin's relationship with political events will be a focal point at the upcoming Benzinga Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.

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