Zinger Key Points
- Kalshi and Polymarket show a 40% likelihood of a Republican government trifecta, with GOP control of all three branches.
- Trump’s rising odds reflect growing confidence in his electoral success, despite Harris’s popular vote lead, according to covers.com.
Bettors in the 2024 U.S. election are increasingly favoring Donald Trump, with odds from regulated platforms like Kalshi reflecting a clear edge over Kamala Harris.
What Happened: As of Election Day at 11.45 a.m. ET, data from Kalshi's U.S.-regulated prediction market indicates Trump has a 59% chance of winning, compared to 43% for Harris.
On the battleground front, Kalshi wagers favor Trump in Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia and Arizona, while Harris maintains leads in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Kalshi bettors are increasingly predicting a Republican sweep of government branches, estimating a 40% probability for a GOP trifecta encompassing the presidency, Senate and House.
However, Harris is still projected to win the popular vote, showing a significant divergence between the popular and electoral college outcomes in bettors' forecasts.
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Polymarket also reflects Trump's rising odds, with Trump standing at 60% and Harris trailing at 40% as of early Election Day.
Polymarket predictions align closely with Kalshi's on battleground states, with Trump expected to capture Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, and Arizona, while Harris is favored in Michigan and Wisconsin. Polymarket's participants slightly differ on government control predictions, favoring Republicans in the executive branch and Senate but projecting Democrats to hold the House.
Other platforms echo this trend. Covers.com estimates Trump's winning probability at 63.6%, with betohio.com showing a similar lead for Trump at 62%, compared to Harris's 42%.
The consistent gaps between Trump's electoral advantage and Harris's projected popular vote lead reflect the complexities of the U.S. electoral system, which has often seen such splits in recent cycles.
As Election Day unfolds, these betting trends will be closely watched, as they provide insight into the perceived momentum and potential outcomes of this pivotal race.
What’s Next: The implications of the 2024 U.S. election and the predicted outcomes for both parties will be a focal point of discussion at Benzinga's Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
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