Well-known statistician Nate Silver, known for his close-call forecasts, has delivered his final prediction for the 2024 U.S. presidential race: Kamala Harris holds an ultra-narrow lead over Donald Trump in a scenario that resembles a coin toss.
What Happened: According to Silver's 80,000 simulation runs, Harris wins the Electoral College 50.015% of the time—a razor-thin margin.
“The odds in this year's presidential race are about as close as you can possibly get to 50/50," Silver stated, adding that Harris's slight edge over Trump came down to just 12 simulations. "There are literally going to be people who say, ‘Nate Silver predicts a Harris win,' as a result of this. Literally."
Silver explained the unprecedented nature of this election cycle, which he notes is unlike anything he has seen in his nine-election career.
Silver's model has correctly forecasted several past elections, including a controversial but ultimately accurate call that Trump has a better-than-predicted chance in his unexpected victory in 2016, even though betting markets leaned in favor of Hillary Clinton.
Also Read: What The Election Outcome Means For Bitcoin’s Near-Term Price Action
In 2020, he predicted a win for Joe Biden, another call that proved correct despite narrow margins in some battleground states.
This year, however, he refrained from making a definitive call, emphasizing the unique uncertainties of the current political landscape.
"If you offered me a bet on the election, who would I pick?" Silver asked. "Well, I wouldn't."
He cited the need to achieve at least a 52.5% probability to place a favorable wager—higher than the margin for either candidate.
The outcome of this election could significantly influence the cryptocurrency sector, as evidenced by heightened interest in platforms such as Benzinga's Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19, where industry leaders will explore how potential regulatory and economic shifts could shape the digital asset landscape.
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