A second Donald Trump mandate could lead to marked shifts in global commodity prices, spurred by his pro-fossil fuel policies, potential tariffs, and aggressive trade stances.
Oxford Economics noted that Trump has campaigned to "unleash a new ear for fossil fuels," as deregulation of the U.S. energy sector could increase the production of oil, coal, and natural gas.
They expect that accelerating the current expansion in the domestic production of energy commodities would "lower the prices and, in turn, outweigh greater demand for diesel and gas through the repeal of tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act."
"Trump has pledged to roll back restrictions on drilling and permitting which were implemented under the Biden administration, as well as to streamline deregulation and end any [electric vehicle] mandates or green energy incentives," UK-based Gibson Shipbrokers stated, per S&P Global's report.
Industrial metals and agricultural goods, including steel and soybeans, will likely feel the impact of renewed tariffs, especially in a trade showdown with China. While China sought to reduce its exposure to U.S. soybean imports by importing more from Brazil and Argentina, it still buys a notable amount of U.S. oilseed.
Futures prices reacted accordingly to the election results, with the November 2024 deliveries declining 2.01% on the CME exchange, while Soybean oil prices rose 0.42% for the same period.
Trump's proposed tariff of up to 60% would likely weaken demand for industrial commodities like copper, steel, and iron ore, all essential to China's manufacturing.
"If Trump wins, I expect we'll see a serious slowdown in demand for metals. China, the largest consumer of these resources, would be facing the toughest constraints," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, told Reuters.
Such a shift could weigh on commodity-exporting nations like Australia, making it more challenging to maintain export revenues.
Matthew Durban, a former Australian Trade and Investment Commission economist, highlighted the risk for News.com.au, stating that Australia's economy would face "calamitous" consequences from reduced Chinese demand, which currently accounts for 35% of the country's exports. Tariffs would disrupt Chinese industrial activity, leading to lower demand for Australian commodities that fuel Chinese manufacturing, such as coal and iron ore.
That situation would put the country in strategic tension as it balances its close alliance with the U.S. and its economic reliance on China.
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