Germany's Govt. Coalition Crisis, Is Cannabis Reform At Risk?

Members of the German cannabis industry shared their plans and opinions with Benzinga on what looks to be an uncertain political landscape following the recent collapse of Germany’s coalition government.

In this article, we look at the situation and lay out the scenarios, with the leading question being “Can Germany’s new governmental coalition roll back CanG?”

First Things First

Germany's coalition government collapsed in November 2024 amid internal disputes over budget and economic policy and, most likely, anticipation of relevant geopolitical changes that will occur under a President-elect Donald Trump administration.

Germany's coalition crisis could cast doubt on the future of cannabis reform, for which the no longer existing “traffic light coalition” (Social Democratic Party, Greens, and Free Democratic Party) was responsible.

With the government dissolved, snap elections in early 2025 could usher in a conservative shift, as the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and right wing Christian Democratic Union (CDU) gain political momentum. Both parties oppose recreational cannabis legalization and prefer strict restrictions, if not prohibition, on medical marijuana.

Concerns Over Far-Right Influence On Legalized Cannabis

However, Niklas Kouparanis, CEO of Bloomwell, says recent cannabis progress will continue.

"The good news is that the cannabis sector will continue to be steered in the right direction, regardless of who becomes the next German chancellor. A great deal of progress has already been made, and we won't be backpedaling. If that were to be the case, first, the CDU would have to form a coalition with one of the three former traffic light coalition parties," he says.

“Additionally, a complete withdrawal of the CanG bill that has already been implemented since April would be a total logistical nightmare. Even extremely reactionary politicians wouldn't have the time or motivation to take that on.”

Nevertheless, Georg Wurth, CEO of the German Hemp Association (DHV), is not as confident, as the AfD's rise in regional elections could strengthen anti-cannabis voices in Germany's government, which have been very clear on their anti-cannabis sentiments.

"The conservatives are bashing the new cannabis law for years in an insane way as if there was no more important issue in Germany," Wurth said in an e-mail exchange with Benzinga Cannabis. “With some luck, we still might get some model projects on the road. But after the elections, we will probably face bad times for cannabis policy."

Read Also: German Medical Marijuana Sales To Reach $1.09B By 2028, New Report

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A Likely Safe Zone

Besides being optimistic about CanG reform and the reclassification of. medical cannabis (which he says is part of the CDU agenda), Kouparanis is less confident about cannabis clubs and decriminalization future if a more right-leaning coalition is formed.

Regulatory Toxicologist Fabian Steinmetz also points out the potential consequences for cannabis research.

“Any combination without CDU/CSU I could think of is likely to keep partial legalization, but the question would be if the research on regulatory approaches will be followed up."

So the consensus looks like Cannabis reform won’t be rolled back any time soon, but progress might slow down for recreational, research and clubs.

Ivan Garver, co-founder of Drapalin – Bavaria's only licensed medical cannabis distributor- shared the cautious optimism. Based in Bavaria where CSU has been a dominant force since mid 20th century, Garver is well acquainted with CSU members.

In a recent interview, Graver speculated that a CSU-integrated coalition would probably not reverse reform efforts, despite their reluctance to the plant.

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Cover: AI-generated image