Apple Faces Modest Growth As IDC Forecasts Smartphone Market Rebound

Global smartphone shipments will likely rise by 6.2% year-over-year in 2024, reaching 1.24 billion units, per International Data Corporation research.

The growth comes after two consecutive years of declines, driven by pent-up demand for device upgrades.

However, IDC expects a deceleration to low single-digit growth from 2025 onward, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.6% from 2023 to 2028.

Also Read: Apple iPhone 16 Sees 20% Sales Surge in China, But AI Absence Prompts Early Price Cuts

While generative AI (GenAI) is a crucial focus for many smartphone vendors, its immediate impact on demand still needs to be improved, according to Nabila Popal, IDC’s senior research director.

Popal noted that although GenAI is poised to transform user experiences in the coming years, greater consumer awareness and compelling features are required to create the anticipated “super cycle” of upgrades. By 2028, IDC expects GenAI-enabled devices to account for 70% of the smartphone market, driven by price reductions and widespread adoption.

Android smartphones are forecasted to grow 7.6% year-over-year in 2024, particularly in regions like Asia-Pacific, excluding Japan and China (APeJC), Latin America, and Africa. These gains are attributed to low-end devices catering to emerging markets.

Meanwhile, Apple Inc’s AAPL iOS devices are projected to see modest growth of 0.4% due to challenges in major markets like China, the U.S., and Europe, despite solid performance in India.

In 2025, iOS growth will likely accelerate to 3.1%, surpassing Android’s forecasted 1.7% growth.

Foldable smartphone shipments declined by 7.4% in the third quarter of 2024, even as prominent vendors introduced new models. Nevertheless, foldable will likely grow 10.5% in 2024, maintaining a five-year CAGR of 15.9% through 2028.

Challenges such as durability concerns and limited unique use cases continue to dampen their momentum, according to Anthony Scarsella, IDC’s research director. Many Chinese manufacturers are now shifting focus toward GenAI-enabled devices.

IDC highlights that the expanding used smartphone market, increasing penetration, and lengthening refresh cycles will contribute to slower growth after 2024.

Apple posted fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $94.9 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $94.56 billion. Adjusted earnings reached $1.64 per share, beating forecasts of $1.60. The stock surged 27% year-to-date.

Analysts remain divided on Apple’s prospects, with ratings ranging from Buy to Underweight, highlighting uncertainty over future growth.

Bank of America cites conservative guidance but sees potential in Apple Intelligence boosting iPhone cycles and product demand.

Goldman Sachs praises strong iPhone performance offsetting Services weakness, projecting growth with iPhone 16 and Apple Intelligence.

Wedbush emphasizes vital iPhone upgrades and AI-driven cycles, calling the September quarter “better than feared.”

Apple is reportedly adopting a new strategy for software updates, opting for staggered feature rollouts rather than bundling them into a single annual iOS release.

In his latest “Power On” newsletter, Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman revealed Apple’s plan for a major update with iOS 18.4, which is expected this spring. However, some features initially planned for the latter half of 2025 have been postponed. Gurman also noted delays in the much-anticipated Siri overhaul, which will integrate Apple’s in-house large language models (LLMs) for a more conversational assistant.

According to Gurman, an unusually high number of features for iOS 19 are deferred until spring 2026, aligning with the release of iOS 19.4.

Price Action: AAPL stock closed higher by 0.94% at $235.06 on Tuesday.

Also Read:

• Apple iPhone 16 Discounts Roll Out on Alibaba’s Tmall, AI Delays, and Domestic Competitors Fuel Aggressive Pricing

Image Credit – Shutterstock.