President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Dr. Mehmet Oz to lead the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), sparking conversations about potential changes to Medicare. This key agency oversees health programs for over 160 million Americans, including Medicare, Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program.
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Dr. Oz, best known for his TV show and controversial medical advice, is a vocal proponent of expanding Medicare Advantage (MA), the private alternative to traditional Medicare.
How could his nomination impact Medicare beneficiaries – particularly in regard to their costs and benefits?
Dr. Oz has long championed Medicare Advantage, which allows seniors to opt for private plans instead of traditional Medicare. These plans often appeal to enrollees with lower premiums and additional perks like dental, hearing and gym memberships. However, they come with trade-offs, such as limited provider networks and prior authorization requirements that can delay or deny care.
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Currently, 54% of Medicare enrollees are in Advantage plans, which could grow under Oz's leadership. Some experts speculate that Oz might push to make MA the default choice for new enrollees, as suggested in the conservative Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 report.
"When plans are paid more, that does seem to result in more generous benefits for Medicare Advantage enrollees," Matthew Fiedler of the Brookings Institution told Yahoo Finance. However, critics warn that this could strain Medicare's finances.
In announcing Oz's nomination, Trump stated that TV doctors would reduce “waste and fraud” in Medicare, which costs the government billions annually. According to the Government Accountability Office (GAO), improper payments in Medicare and Medicaid exceeded $100 billion in 2023. Addressing these issues could help extend Medicare's solvency, especially as its trust fund faces potential depletion by 2036.
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Yet, experts are skeptical about significant changes targeting Medicare Advantage, which some studies suggest leads to overpayments and excessive profits for insurers. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated that Medicare Advantage overpayments could cost taxpayers up to $1.6 trillion over the next decade.
Oz and Trump have expressed a desire to make prescription drugs more affordable. While Oz has discussed streamlining clinical trials to cut costs, it remains unclear if he would support provisions from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), such as Medicare's $2,000 cap on out-of-pocket drug expenses.
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Although some Republicans advocate repealing the IRA, most experts believe the cap on drug costs will remain untouched. "Nobody's going to mess with the $2,000 cap," says elder advocate Bob Blancato at the Gerontological Society of America (GSA) conference before Oz was nominated.
Oz's leadership could mean expanded access to Medicare Advantage plans for Medicare beneficiaries, potentially offering more perks but with stricter provider networks. However, these changes might also increase costs for taxpayers and the traditional Medicare program in the long term.
Ultimately, whether Dr. Oz can deliver on promises to cut waste and fraud while maintaining or improving benefits remains to be seen. Seniors and policymakers alike will be watching closely as his tenure unfolds. Understanding these potential changes can help you make informed decisions about your health care options.
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