Major U.S. indices have advanced between 18% to 27% year-to-date. The S&P 500 Index scaled its 52nd record high this year on Tuesday, Nov. 26. Bulls and Bears are locking horns as S&P 500 is on track to deliver 20% plus year-to-date gains for the second time.
What Happened: Markets have been under pressure only once in the month of December over the last 95 years, according to the data highlighted by Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group LLC.
Thanksgiving falls on the fourth Thursday of November every year, addressing the next month of December, Detrick shared the data and said “Something to be thankful for?”, in an X (formerly Twitter). The data from 1928 to 2023 showed that September has been the worst 13 times while April is the worst month this year with a 4% drop.
On the other hand, David Cox, CMT, CFA, portfolio manager at Raymond James Ltd., in an X Post highlighted the likelihood of an upcoming to the investors, saying “If you want to sidestep a decline, watch the trend…”
The 13/34-week Exponential Moving Average signals a bullish market trend when the 13-week EMA line is above the 34-week EMA line and a bullish crossover results in a market correction. Predicting an upcoming crossover through his chart Cox said that “there will be another red circle some day”, The red circle in his chart represents a bullish crossover.
According to a note by CMGWealth, the 13/34-week EMA analysis is a “simple, tactical trend indicator that has historically captured the cyclical bull and bear market trends.”
Why It Matters: Markets have been trading higher than their pre-election levels and the expectations of a further 25 basis point rate cut in December rose to just 66.3%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. This indicates a further upside in the stock markets.
The S&P 500 index has risen 26.48% year-to-date to basis. Whereas, the Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, and Russell 200 Index have returned 25.39%, 18.58%, and 20.54%, respectively. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY was up by 26.7% and the Invesco QQQ ETF QQQ advanced by 23.39%, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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