Why This Streaming Giant Could Be December's Best Stock Pick, Backed By 20 Years Of Data

As the year draws to a close, investors are looking for one last chance to make a winning play in 2024.

The S&P 500 has delivered a strong 27% surge year-to-date, but some may feel they’ve missed out on the gains—or even left money on the table with premature moves earlier in the year.

While the broader market often enjoys a Santa Claus rally, one stock in particular stands out for its incredible seasonality: Netflix Inc. NFLX.

If historical patterns hold true, Netflix could be the perfect pick to buy in December and hold through end of January.

Here’s why.

Netflix's Stellar Seasonality: By The Numbers

As soon as Christmas songs start filling the air, Netflix has historically outperformed its peers in the S&P 500.

Data from Seasonax shows that the streaming giant has rallied an average of 14.1% from early December through the end of January, with a median return of 11%.

Over the last 20 years, Netflix has closed this two-month period in the green 80% of the time, or 16 out of 20 years.

Let's break that down further:

• Average return in positive years: +24.98%
• Average loss in negative years: -20.64%
• Best performance: +117.42% (Dec. 2012 – Jan. 2013)
• Worst performance: -30.71% (Dec. 2021 – Jan. 2022)

For perspective, Netflix has delivered double-digit returns 12 times during this period, making it a seasonal gem for traders looking to capitalize on recurring market patterns.

Here’s a snapshot of Netflix’s performance from early December through late January over the last 20 years:

Start Date	Start Price ($)	End Date	End Price ($)	Profit (%)
Dec. 2, 2004	1.62	Jan. 31, 2005	1.64	+1.33%
Dec. 2, 2005	3.96	Jan. 31, 2006	3.94	-0.51%
Dec. 4, 2006	4.13	Jan. 31, 2007	3.26	-21.15%
Dec. 3, 2007	3.40	Jan. 31, 2008	3.59	+5.76%
Dec. 2, 2008	3.32	Feb. 2, 2009	5.28	+59.20%
Dec. 2, 2009	8.43	Feb. 1, 2010	8.72	+3.44%
Dec. 2, 2010	27.63	Jan. 31, 2011	30.58	+10.68%
Dec. 2, 2011	9.48	Jan. 31, 2012	17.17	+81.11%
Dec. 3, 2012	10.86	Jan. 31, 2013	23.61	+117.42%
Dec. 2, 2013	51.99	Jan. 31, 2014	58.48	+12.48%
Dec. 2, 2014	50.33	Feb. 2, 2015	63.01	+25.19%
Dec. 2, 2015	128.93	Feb. 1, 2016	94.09	-27.02%
Dec. 2, 2016	120.81	Jan. 31, 2017	140.71	+16.47%
Dec. 4, 2017	184.04	Jan. 31, 2018	270.30	+46.87%
Dec. 3, 2018	290.30	Jan. 31, 2019	339.50	+16.95%
Dec. 2, 2019	309.99	Jan. 31, 2020	345.09	+11.32%
Dec. 2, 2020	503.38	Feb. 1, 2021	539.04	+7.08%
Dec. 2, 2021	616.47	Jan. 31, 2022	427.14	-30.71%
Dec. 2, 2022	320.41	Jan. 31, 2023	353.86	+10.44%
Dec. 4, 2023	453.90	Jan. 31, 2024	564.11	+24.28%

Election Year Edge: A Netflix Specialty

Netflix's late-year success is even more pronounced during U.S. presidential election cycles. In the last five election years, the stock has never posted a loss during the December-January period.

Instead, it delivered an average return of 34.33%, with a maximum profit of 117.4% during the 2012-2013 cycle.

Here's how Netflix performed during recent election years:

Start Date	Start Price ($)	End Date	End Price ($)	Profit (%)
Dec. 2, 2004	1.62	Jan. 31, 2005	1.64	+1.33%
Dec. 2, 2008	3.32	Feb. 2, 2009	5.28	+59.20%
Dec. 3, 2012	10.86	Jan. 31, 2013	23.61	+117.42%
Dec. 2, 2016	120.81	Jan. 31, 2017	140.71	+16.47%
Dec. 2, 2020	503.38	Feb. 1, 2021	539.04	+7.08%

Read also: S&P 500 At 6,666 In 2025? Bank Of America Predicts ‘Another Good Year For Equities’

Why Netflix Is the Holiday Stock You Can't Ignore

Whether it's delivering triple-digit gains in its best years or remaining largely resilient in bearish conditions, the streaming giant has been a reliable performer for traders seeking late-year opportunities.

So, why does Netflix shine so brightly in December and January? Several factors might play a role:

• Holiday binge-watching: As people gather around TVs during the holidays, Netflix tends to dominate consumer attention.
• New-year optimism: Investors often position themselves for strong earnings results, driving demand for high-growth stocks like Netflix.
• Seasonal market rally: The broader "Santa Claus rally" typically provides tailwinds for stocks with positive sentiment.

Now Read:

• Dollar Enters Its Most Bearish Month Of The Year: Could December 2024 Be Any Different?

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