If Trump Starts A Trade War, Canada Could Impose Export Taxes On Oil, Uranium: Report

Canada is considering export taxes on goods, including uranium, oil and potash, if President-elect Donald Trump imposes the broad tariffs he pledged. 

The Details: According to a Bloomberg report, retaliatory tariffs on U.S.-made goods and export controls on certain Canadian products are most likely, with export levies also on the table as a last resort. The Bloomberg report cited officials familiar with discussions inside Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government. 

The sources also said Trudeau's government may consider expanding its powers over export controls as part of a scheduled update on the country's fiscal and economic conditions. 

Why It Matters: U.S. oil refineries, especially in the Midwest, rely heavily on Canadian crude oil imports. Export levies would increase the cost of imported Canadian oil and potentially squeeze refinery margins. Some of the largest oil refiners in the U.S. are Marathon Petroleum Corp. MPC and Valero Energy Corp. VLO. 

Read Next: Canadian Oil Sector Hedges Trump Tariff Risk, US Midwest Refineries Could Be Affected

Canadian export taxes on uranium could be devastating to U.S. nuclear energy producers with Canada supplying about a quarter of the uranium U.S. producers use for their nuclear reactors. 

Constellation Energy Corp. CEG, the largest owner of non-rate-regulated nuclear plants in the U.S., and Duke Energy Corp. DUK, which operates 11 nuclear units in North and South Carolina, could face supply disruptions as domestic uranium production is virtually nonexistent. The companies could pass along the increased costs to consumers in areas served by nuclear power plants.

American farmers rely heavily on imports of Canadian potash as a source of fertilizer. If Canada imposes export levies on potash, several American farm-related stocks could be affected due to the reliance of U.S. agriculture on the fertilizer.

Companies tied to crops heavily dependent on potash, such as soybeans, corn, sugar beets and potatoes could see increased costs. These companies include Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. ADM and Bunge Limited BG. Food producers, like General Mills, Inc. GIS and Kellanova K may face higher input costs for agricultural products reliant on potash fertilizers and could pass those costs along to consumers.

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