Tesla Deliveries At Risk If $7,500 EV Tax Credit Ends, Researcher Warns Despite CEO Elon Musk Claiming Otherwise

Tesla Inc.’s TSLA deliveries would be impacted if the U.S. were to cancel the up to $7,500 tax credit currently available on the purchase of electric vehicles in the country, according to researcher Troy Teslike.

What Happened: Tesla researcher Teslike noted that the cancelation of a 5000 euro ecological bonus for electric vehicles in France as well as the cancelation of a €4,500 environmental bonus in Germany led to EV sales of the company dropping in the regions.

Cancelation of a $7500 tax credit on the purchase of EVs could similarly cause a fall in sales for the company in the U.S., Teslike said.

Here are two data points on what could happen when the $7,500 Federal Tax Credit in the US is canceled:

• In France, the €5,000 Ecological Bonus for electric vehicles was canceled a year ago on December 14, 2023. Tesla's year-to-date sales from January to November are down by…
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) December 21, 2024

In November, Reuters reported that President-elect Donald Trump‘s transition team is planning to kill $7,500 tax credit available on EV purchases. The report also noted that Tesla representatives expressed support for ending the subsidy to the team.

"In my view, we should end all government subsidies, including those for EVs, oil and gas," Tesla CEO Elon Musk then said.

Why It Matters: During Tesla’s second-quarter earnings in late July, Musk also said that the impact of the elimination of subsidies would only be slight for Tesla but devastating for its competitors. The elimination of EV subsidies would probably help Tesla in the long term, he added.

However, not all are as hopeful as Musk. The Future Fund Managing Partner Gary Black said in November that the killing of the consumer tax credit will have a negative impact on Tesla's EPS similar to the one experienced by the company when it resorted to price cuts to increase delivery volume in 2023.

Teslike then also said that the loss of tax credit would only make Tesla lose its market to gas cars from luxury car brands.

"Tesla competes with gas cars from BMW, Mercedes, Porsche, and Audi. Therefore, without the tax credit, Teslas will effectively be $7,500 more expensive compared to those cars," Teslike then said.

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