Leading Tesla Inc. TSLA analysts Dan Ives and Gary Black revealed stark differences in their valuation approaches during a recent “Brighter with Herbert” show appearance, even as both remain bullish on the electric vehicle maker’s prospects.
What Happened: Ives, Managing Director at Wedbush Securities, maintains the Street’s highest price target of $515 with a bull case of $650, citing potential revenues from autonomous robotaxis and the company’s Optimus robot project. He projects Tesla’s earnings at $15 per share by 2030.
“The Tesla story changes because everything we looked at with robotaxi gets accelerated,” Ives said, estimating autonomous vehicles could capture 20% of ride-shares by decade’s end. He values Tesla’s autonomous business alone at $1 trillion.
In contrast, Black, Managing Partner at The Future Fund LLC, takes a more conservative approach with a $380 target, well above the Street average of $275. Black forecasts $17 earnings per share by 2030 but excludes robotaxi and Optimus revenue from his calculations.
“Even if I assume Tesla took 25% of ride-sharing market share, that only adds about a dollar per share in earnings,” Black explained, noting his use of higher risk adjustments in Tesla’s valuation given its volatility.
Why It Matters: The valuation debate comes as Tesla’s stock has surged nearly 71% year-to-date, recently crossing the symbolic $420 level that CEO Elon Musk referenced in his controversial 2018 “funding secured” tweet. Morgan Stanley has named Tesla its top stock pick for 2025, citing the company’s advances in autonomy and robotics.
Both analysts expressed optimism about Tesla’s planned entry into the compact car segment, with Black suggesting a $25,000-$30,000 hatchback could expand Tesla’s market reach similar to how the Model Y boosted its presence in the crossover segment.
Tesla has a consensus target of $280.41 from 33 analysts, according to data from Benzinga Pro. The high is $515, and the low is $24.86. Recent ratings from Baird, Mizuho, and Goldman Sachs give an average target of $446.67, implying a 3.05% upside.
Year-to-date, the Tesla stock has gained 69.50%.
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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