After Carnival's Q4 Performance, Analysts See Smooth Sailing

Analysts revised/maintained the price target for Carnival Corporation CCL following better-than-expected fourth-quarter 2024 results reported last week.

The company reported sales growth of 10% year-over-year to $5.938 billion, marginally beating the street view of $5.932 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.14, beating the consensus estimate of $0.08.

JP Morgan analyst Matthew R. Boss raised the price target to $31 from $29 while maintaining an Overweight rating.

The analyst says that looking ahead to 2025, CEO Weinstein noted that nearly two-thirds of the year is already booked, and the company expects another year of big yield improvement, surpassing historical growth rates.

The cumulative advanced bookings for 2025 are 16 points higher compared to the same time last year, setting an “all-time high” for both price and occupancy, with each quarter of 2025 booked above 2024 levels, adds the analyst.

Boss writes that with increased advertising investment (after previous underinvestment compared to peers) and a more conservative capacity growth strategy, CCL is positioned to improve brand clarity, pricing power, and accelerate efforts to de-lever its balance sheet.

Truist Securities analyst C. Patrick Scholes maintained a Buy rating with a price target of $29.

The analyst says that fourth-quarter exceeded high Street and investor expectations, with upside to earnings driven by better-than-expected costs, particularly in the Commission, transportation, and other line items.

Scholes writes that he does not expect investor disappointment with the newly introduced 2025 earnings guide, which is roughly in line or slightly below consensus, as cruise lines typically provide conservative guidance at the start of the year due to global uncertainties.

With strong booking pricing trends continuing, the analyst anticipates further opportunities for quarterly earnings beats and upgrades.

Other analyst price target/rating revisions:

• Stifel analyst increased the price target to $34 from $32, while reiterating a Buy rating.
• Barclays analyst raised the price target to $32 from $31, while reiterating an Overweight rating.

Investors can gain exposure to the stock via AdvisorShares Hotel ETF BEDZ and Defiance Hotel, Airline, and Cruise ETF CRUZ.

Price Action: CCL shares are down 4.89% at $25.49 at the last check Monday.

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