Collegium's Revenue Outlook And CNS Expansion Signal Undervalued Opportunity, Says Needham

Needham analyst Serge Belanger upgraded Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. COLL to Buy from Hold, with a price forecast of $46.

Recently, Collegium provided 2025 guidance, expecting a top-line of $735 million – $750 million, including Jornay PM sales over $135 million and adjusted EBITDA of $435 million – $450 million.

The analyst highlights that the guidance was higher than their estimates and aligned with Street consensus.

Per the analyst, the company’s valuation doesn’t fully reflect its growth, profitability, and cash flow, boosted by Jornay PM’s expected contribution.

Belanger also highlighted that the company’s valuation presents an attractive entry point, and that the continued growth of its pain portfolio, especially Xtampza and Belbuca, remains underappreciated.

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Both drugs have intellectual property through the early-to-mid 2030s, and a recent settlement delays the launch of Nucynta generics until at least 2027, the analyst writes.

The analyst notes that Collegium is significantly undervalued compared to its peers based on key sales and EBITDA metrics from 2025 guidance. The company has historically traded at a discount due to concerns over the generic threat to its pain products and its focus on opioids, which has limited its M&A potential.

However, the analyst views Collegium’s entry into neurology and its future CNS product portfolio as essential steps in diversifying away from opioid products, which could bring its valuation more in line with its peers.

Price Action: COLL shares are trading lower by 1.02% to $33.00 at last check Friday.

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