Bitcoin Supercycle Incoming, Says Economist, But There's A Catch

Economist and trader Alex Kruger has expressed a bullish outlook on Bitcoin BTC/USD, despite the cryptocurrency currently trading 13% below its all-time high.

What Happened: Kruger believes that Bitcoin has significant potential for growth and is far from reaching the peak of its cycle.

He attributes this optimism to the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January 2024, which he suggests may alter Bitcoin’s traditional four-year halving cycles.

"The introduction of the ETF and the significant flows they bring make the correlation between risk and Bitcoin more sustainable," Kruger said on a recent episode of the Unchained podcast.

He emphasized that current market conditions are evolving, with the halving’s impact diminishing and the presence of ETFs.

However, Kruger cautioned that a supercycle does not imply continuous upward movement.

He explained, “We have shorter corrections… smaller drawdowns that last for shorter periods,” provided equities and the economy perform well.

As of now, Bitcoin is priced at $94,343, approximately 13% below its peak of $108,268.

Why It Matters: The prediction of a Bitcoin supercycle comes amid a backdrop of diverse opinions on the cryptocurrency’s future.

Recently, Anthony Scaramucci, CEO of SkyBridge Capital, shared his strategy on Bitcoin, emphasizing a focus on altcoins like Solana while maintaining his Bitcoin holdings.

Scaramucci noted that the market’s maturity could lead to Bitcoin lending and earning mechanisms akin to traditional banking.

Conversely, economist Peter Schiff criticized Bitcoin, labeling it as the riskiest asset, challenging its reputation as a safe haven. Schiff’s comments highlight the ongoing debate about Bitcoin’s role in financial markets.

Additionally, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, speculated that changes in U.S. banking regulations could potentially drive Bitcoin’s value to $1 million. Hayes pointed to possible exemptions from the supplementary leverage ratio rule as a catalyst for increased liquidity and Bitcoin’s price surge.