Your Investing Playbook for the Next Four Years

Welcome, my friends, to what I am calling the Age of Uncertainty. This little catchphrase is going to be sticking around for at least the next four years. As I write this, Donald Trump has just taken office.

It's the first week of his Presidency and the start of his administration is just about what we expected with a few surprises thrown in for good measure: new takes on energy, trade, immigration, and much more.

Let us dive into what is happening and what it all means for your money.

Trump’s Opening Moves

Contrary to the predictions of many in the financial world, Trump came out of the gate a bit softer on China. No immediate tariffs or trade wars, just an announcement that the United States trade policy will be reviewed and some suggestion and indication of what is coming down the pike.

Trump has touched on familiar themes such as immigration and border security. One hot button issue was his executive order aimed at ending birthright citizenship. While the abuse of this system is real (indeed, even wealthy families use it to get dual citizenship for their kids), this fight will undoubtedly end up in the courts. Changing a constitutional clause is not exactly a walk in the park. But hey, I am sure Trump has got it all figured out.

On the border, his halt on catch and release policies is likely to boost business for companies such as GEO Group. They own jails on the United States Mexico border, and with Trump’s border policies in play, it is looking good for them.

Energy and Trade

Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” stance is music to the ears of those invested in oil and gas infrastructure. With plans to explore and produce energy on federal lands and waters, kill offshore wind leases, and remove restrictions on drilling in Alaska, the energy sector is poised for growth. We own energy royalties and non-operator ownership interests in oil wells, and every uptick in production is a win for us. Trump also promised a sweeping trade overhaul, with reviews of agreements with China, Canada, and Mexico. The potential for tariffs on our neighbors could shake things up, but it is all still uncertain.

Inflation, Debt, and the Economy

Let us address the elephant in the room: inflation.

It is still here, it is sticky, and it is not going anywhere soon. Sure, we have seen it drop from over 9% to around 3%, but do not expect a rollback on prices anytime soon. Food and energy costs remain stable for now, but any disruption could quickly change that.

As for government spending, we are on a never-ending roller coaster. Infrastructure, energy, semiconductors, and rehoming critical industries all require and you guessed it and government spending. Debt levels are troubling, but the United States can still sell its bonds easily, so a debt crisis is not imminent. Consumers and corporations, meanwhile, are in pretty good shape. Debt to service ratios and balance sheets look strong, which is good news as we enter this new administration.

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Why Asset Based Value Investing Works

In an environment like this, asset-based value investing shines. Here is why: when you invest in assets with intrinsic value, you are anchoring your portfolio to something tangible. Whether it is real estate, energy infrastructure, or even royalty streams, these investments are backed by physical or financial assets that generate real cash flow. This approach reduces reliance on market sentiment and speculative price movements.

For individual investors, this means you are not just betting on a hot stock or the latest trend. You are buying into assets where you can evaluate the downside risk with clarity. In uncertain times, this focus on tangible value and cash flow provides a much-needed margin of safety. Best of all, asset-based investments often come with the added bonus of inflation protection. Real assets such as property and energy infrastructure tend to appreciate over time, especially when inflation rears its head.

By prioritizing assets that are undervalued relative to their net asset value, you are setting yourself up for long term success. It is not flashy, but it works and it has worked for decades. In the Age of Uncertainty, asset-based value investing is a strategy that does not just survive; it thrives.

Why Buying Below Book Value is a Winning Strategy

Let us talk numbers. Historical data shows that buying stocks below book value often leads to extraordinary returns. Take a look at the annual returns for undervalued stocks. In years where investors focused on buying below book value, returns like 98.94% in 2003 and 95.19% in 2004 were achieved. Even in less spectacular years, returns consistently outperformed broader market indices.

Why does this work? Because buying below book value means you are acquiring assets at a discount. It is like buying a dollar for fifty cents. When market conditions normalize or improve, these undervalued stocks have the potential to surge, as their intrinsic value becomes recognized. This strategy aligns perfectly with asset-based value investing, where the focus is on tangible assets and strong fundamentals.

In volatile times, this approach gives investors a margin of safety. You are not just speculating on growth; you are investing in real, measurable value. And as history shows, the payoff can be remarkable. So, whether it is real estate, energy infrastructure, or beaten down stocks trading below book value, the principle remains the same: buy quality assets at a discount and watch them appreciate.

Using a Deep Value Approach to Real Estate Investing

Let us take a closer look at why a deep value approach to real estate investing is a game changer. The idea is simple but powerful: buy properties or real estate investment trusts (REITs) at prices well below their intrinsic or net asset value (NAV). This strategy works particularly well during times of market dislocation or uncertainty, when fear and volatility create opportunities to scoop up high quality assets at bargain prices.

By focusing on deep value, you are not just buying properties; you are buying into cash flow streams and tangible assets that are often mispriced by the market. For instance, Class A office properties or medical office buildings might be trading at discounts due to temporary concerns. However, their long-term fundamentals, such as high occupancy rates and reliable tenants, remain intact. By purchasing these properties below NAV, you set yourself up for both strong cash flow and significant capital appreciation as the market recovers.

This approach also aligns with the concept of a margin of safety. When you buy below NAV, you are essentially building in a cushion against potential risks or market downturns. Even if the broader real estate market faces headwinds, your investments are better positioned to weather the storm and deliver returns. And let us not forget: inflation is a friend to real estate. As the cost of goods and services rises, so do rents and property values, further enhancing the appeal of deeply discounted real estate assets.

Why Real Estate?

Publicly traded real estate has outperformed almost every other asset class over the long term. REITs have delivered stellar returns since the 1970s, even beating private equity (unless you have got millions to invest in those exclusive funds). Wall Street will not tell you this because there is no money in it for them. But I am here to tell you: buying high quality real estate at attractive prices is one of the smartest moves you can make.

Final Thoughts

This Age of Uncertainty is going to be a wild ride. Trump’s policies could bring great opportunities or unforeseen challenges. What we do know is that investing in high quality real estate with strong cash flows and rock-solid financials is a strategy that works. It has weathered inflation, market crashes, and bad government policies before, and it will continue to do so.

If you are ready to grow your wealth or secure steady income, consider adding the Total Return or Income portfolios to your strategy. As always, we will be here, watching, monitoring, and most importantly, collecting cash.

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