AbbVie Builds Momentum With Immunology Growth, Goldman Remains Positive

AbbVie Inc. ABBV will release its full-year and fourth-quarter 2024 financial results on Friday, Jan. 31.

Wall Street estimates adjusted EPS of $2.10 and quarterly sales of $14.83 billion, as per data from Benzinga Pro.

Goldman Sachs sees AbbVie shares as “attractive at current levels” but notes that a high-profile catalyst is needed to reignite investor interest after the disappointing results of emraclidine’s two failed Phase 2 trials.

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Despite this, the company sees potential in exploring emraclidine as an adjunctive treatment, given its favorable tolerability profile. However, accounting rules required AbbVie to record an impairment charge of about $3.5 billion.

Wall Street analysts have removed potential revenue from emraclidine in forecasts, viewing any future progress as a bonus—assuming the costs of continuing development are reasonable compared to other investment options.

The company has demonstrated strong execution in its core immunology business, effectively managing Humira’s loss of exclusivity (LOE) in 2023. Despite a 10% decline in 2023, the franchise is expected to recover, with a 2% overall growth projection for 2024 and stable U.S. performance.

Growth is forecasted to accelerate to 7% in 2025, with double-digit expansion of 10-11% expected in 2026 and 2027.

Goldman Sachs raised the price forecast from $205 to $208, with a Buy rating, reflecting confidence in the upside potential from key Immunology growth drivers, Skyrizi/Rinvoq.

Goldman Sachs writes the key updates are focused on the revenue outlook for major immunology products. For 2025 and 2026, analyst Chris Shibutani has increased Skyrizi forecasts by 1.4% and 3.1%, respectively, driven by strong performance and potential in treating inflammatory bowel diseases.

Rinvoq forecasts also see a slight boost of 0.4% for both years. The analyst is closely watching Phase 3 trial results for additional uses, such as alopecia areata and vitiligo, expected in 2025 to guide long-term growth projections.

Price Action: ABBV stock is up 3.5% at $176.32 at last check Monday.

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