Zinger Key Points
- Analyst emphasizse near-term catalysts like pricing power, cost savings, and margin improvements.
- Earnings guidance and external factors, including geopolitical and policy shifts, impact investor sentiment.
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BofA Securities analyst Dimple Gosai revised the rating or price forecast on several clean energy stocks ahead of the earnings results.
First Solar, Inc. FSLR: The analyst cut the price forecast from $246 to $236, while maintaining a Buy rating.
The analyst writes that updates on the A/D ruling will be pivotal for pricing power, though near-term customer commitments may stay limited.
The analyst says that monitoring warranty remediation costs and the shift of India-manufactured supply to the U.S. will be crucial for evaluating capacity utilization and gross margin gains.
For FY24/FY25, Gosai estimates revenue of $1.502 billion with an adj. EBITDA margin of 44.6% and $5.516 billion with a 55% margin (slightly above consensus).
Fluence Energy, Inc. FLNC: The analyst cut the price forecast from $25 to $20, while reiterating a Buy rating.
Taking about the key focus areas, the analyst expects FY25 revenue cover to rise to the mid-80% range, 25% of U.S. projects to use domestic cells in FY25 and maintain stability in market share.
Gosai estimates revenue of $361 million and gross margin of 12.7% ahead of consensus at $257 million and 11.1% for first quarter 2025.
For FY25, the analyst sees revenue of $3.84 billion near the middle of the guidance range ($3.6 billion-$4.4 billion).
HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. HASI: Gosai retained the price forecast of $37 and a Buy rating on the stock.
The analyst writes that the company’s key factors to watch include progress on the >$5.5 billion pipeline, developments in the KKR partnership, and the stability of asset yields.
The analyst expects to closely monitor guidance updates, particularly regarding the projected 8%-10% annual adjusted EPS growth through 2026 and the outlook for 2027 amidst policy uncertainties.
The analyst's adjusted EPS estimate for fourth-quarter is 61 cents (slightly higher than the consensus of 59 cents) and for 2024 stands at $2.43 (vs. $2.41 consensus).
Clearway Energy, Inc. CWEN: The analyst maintained the price forecast of $32 and a Buy rating on the stock.
Gosai anticipates that wind production data from key western states could provide upside during the seasonally weaker fourth-quarter.
The analyst highlights updates on the path to achieving the 2027 CAFD guidance as a key factor, noting recent M&A activity, including Tuolumne Wind, and the offer of Honeycomb, which add visibility toward reaching the $2.50 midpoint.
The analyst estimates 2024 EBITDA/CAFD of $1.17 billion/$406 million (roughly in-line) and 2025 EBITA/CAFD of 1.24 billion/$432 million (above consensus).
Bloom Energy Corporation BE: The analyst cut the price forecast from $20 to $18, while reiterating an Underperform rating.
Gosai says that key focus areas for the company include ensuring stability in order flow, securing greenfield projects, and tracking developments related to ITC impacts, which are pivotal for project economics.
While utility partnerships are expected to increase, maintaining cost competitiveness and improving margins will be critical for achieving the company’s goals, adds the analyst.
The analyst's 2024 revenue estimate falls at the lower end of the guidance range of $1.4 billion-$1.6 billion, and expects gross margins to be below consensus at 24.3%, vs. the 26.6% consensus and 28% guidance.
Also, the analyst sees 2025 revenue and EBITDA below consensus.
The AES Corporation AES: The analyst maintained the price forecast of $11 and an Underperform rating on the stock.
The analyst expects the outlook for the near term to be impacted by one-off headwinds, including the expiration of the Warrior Run PPA, divestitures in Brazil and Ohio, and droughts in Columbia. FLNC monetization is not expected in the near term.
The analyst says they are looking for updates on the $3.5 billion asset sale program while anticipating near-term EPS dilution and execution risks in the renewables segment.
Gosai estimates 2024 EBITDA of $2.65 billion, at the lower end of the $2.6 billion-$2.9 billion guidance and in line with consensus at $2.66 billion.
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