Apple's AI Delay Costs Market Share: Will Q1 Earnings Soften The Blow?

Wall Street expects Apple Inc AAPL to report $124.13 billion in revenue when the company posts first-quarter financial results after market hours Thursday.

That’s $2.35 in earnings per share.

Apple's AI Woes, Market Struggles Loom Over Q1 Earnings

The Cupertino, California-based company heads into its first-quarter earnings with mounting pressure from AI setbacks and market share losses. The tech giant is now one of the most crowded large-cap stocks in the U.S., according to Hazeltree's latest Shortside Crowdedness Report.

While rivals Samsung and Alphabet Inc‘s GOOGL GOOG Google push AI-powered smartphones, Apple has been slow to the party, leading to complaints about its AI summary tool and delays in feature rollouts.

Market share has taken a hit, slipping to 23% globally and dropping sharply in China, where AI restrictions have stalled Apple's innovation.

Meanwhile, regulatory hurdles in Indonesia have blocked iPhone sales, though a potential deal is in the works. Investors will be watching closely to see if Apple can shift the narrative with its earnings report.

Let’s look at what the charts indicate for Apple stock and how the stock currently maps against Wall Street estimates.

Read Also: This Apple Analyst Is No Longer Bullish; Here Are Top 5 Downgrades For Wednesday

Apple Stock Chart Strongly Bullish Ahead Of Q1 Earnings

Apple stock is riding a strongly bullish trend, with its share price of $238.26 comfortably above its five, 20 and 50-day exponential moving averages, signaling sustained buying pressure.

Chart created using Benzinga Pro

The eight-day and 20-day simple moving averages confirm the bullish setup, indicating near-term strength. However, the 50-day simple moving average at $239.80 presents minor resistance, suggesting some caution in the short term. The 200-day simple moving average at $219.07 reinforces long-term bullish momentum, making pullbacks attractive for Apple stock investors eyeing entry points.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at a negative 3.41 flashes a bearish signal, hinting at possible near-term consolidation. With a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 52.27, Apple stock remains in neutral territory, suggesting room for further upside without being overbought.

Investors should watch for a breakout above the 50-day moving average to confirm continued bullish momentum.

Apple Analysts See 9% Upside

Oppenheimer just rang the caution bell on Apple ahead of its first-quarter earnings. Analysts Martin Yang and Andrew Northcutt axed their Outperform rating, slashed estimates, and ditched their $250 price target. They blamed weaker iPhone sales and a lack of must-have AI features to drive upgrades, reported Barron’s.

With China's competition heating up and Apple’s valuation already stretched, they're betting the stock will struggle to outperform in the near term.

Ratings & Consensus Estimates: The consensus analyst rating on Apple stock stands at a Buy. The price target is $243.06. The latest analyst ratings from Rosenblatt, BofA Securities and Wedbush set an average price target of $255 for Apple stock, implying a 8.85% upside.

Price Action: Apple closed the trading day Tuesday at $238.26, up 3.65%. The stock is up 24.27% over the past year, down 2.29% year-to-date.

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