Zinger Key Points
- The USDA predicts egg prices will rise another 45% in 2025 due to a strain of bird flu known as H5N1.
- Consumers face record-high egg prices, as well as shortages and purchase limits at major grocery retailers.
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Egg prices in the U.S. have risen 60% over the past year, due in large part to the bird flu ravaging commercial flocks. Here's a look at why experts see the prices continuing to climb.
The Details: The average price for a dozen large, grade-A eggs rose 60% over the past year, reaching $4.15 in December, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The USDA predicts egg prices will rise another 45% in 2025 due to a strain of bird flu known as H5N1 that killed 13.2 million commercial egg-laying hens in December.
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On top of the record-high prices, consumers are also facing egg shortages and purchase limits at major retailers like Costco Wholesale Corp. COST and Albertsons Companies, Inc. ACI.
Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows that a record number of more than 20 million egg-laying chickens died in the last quarter due to bird flu.
In an attempt to contain the virus, farmers are compensated for chickens and eggs that are destroyed through a USDA program which said it had paid out $1.25 billion to farmers since the outbreak started in 2022, according to a CBS News report.
In fact, egg producers are reporting record profits during the latest bird flu outbreak. Cal-Maine Foods Inc. CALM, the nation's largest egg producer, reported its most recent quarterly revenue at $954.7 million, well above the $751.49 million consensus estimate.
The company attributed its high revenue in part to restricted supply resulting from bird flu outbreaks. Cal-Maine Foods stock has gained more than 75% over the past six months.
Telsey Advisory Group analyst Sarang Vora initiated coverage this week on Vital Farms, Inc. VITL, a smaller producer specializing in pasture-raised eggs. Vora said he sees the company’s sales growing at an annual growth rate of 19% to 20% and hitting the $1 billion mark in 2027, versus $600 million in 2024.
This week, Rose Acre Farms, the second-largest egg producer in the U.S., confirmed its chickens had tested positive for bird flu, likely extending the period of high egg prices and shortages.
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