Goldman Sachs Turns Bearish On Vaccine Maker Dynavax Amid Shingles And Hepatitis B Uncertainty

Goldman Sachs downgraded Dynavax Technologies Corporation DVAX reflecting updated views and recent competitive dynamics for vaccines.

Goldman Sachs analyst Paul Choi has downgraded Dynavax to Sell from Neutral and cut the price target from $15 to $12. He notes growing competition in the shingles vaccine market, which could reduce the potential value of the Z-1018 program and add uncertainty to its long-term revenue.

Potential convenience improvements come from GSK Plc's GSK Shingrix with the company's pre-filled syringes, which have been accepted for review by both the FDA and EMA (U.S. decision expected by 20 June).

Dynavax is conducting a Phase 1/2 trial to evaluate the safety, tolerability, and immunogenicity of Z-1018 compared to GSK's Shingrix in 441 healthy adults aged 50 to 69.

Choi also points to uncertain demand for repeat hepatitis B vaccinations in the 2030s, which may impact Heplisav-B's outlook beyond its peak sales. Despite its market share gains, questions remain about the FDA and ACIP's regulatory stance on vaccines in the U.S.

Last month, Dynavax announced preliminary HEPLISAV-B net product revenue of $268 million for 2024, up 26% year-over-year.

HEPLISAV-B net product revenue reached $71 million for the fourth quarter of 2024, up 39%.

In May 2024, the FDA issued a Complete Response Letter stating that the application did not provide sufficient data to fully evaluate the effectiveness or safety of a four-dose regimen of HEPLISAV-B. 

Dynavax is expected to report fourth-quarter earnings on 20 February.

As per data from Benzinga Pro, analysts estimate Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.04, with sales of $72.92 million.

Analysts forecast 2024 sales of $278.13 million and adjusted EPS of $0.12.

Price Action: DVAX stock is down 4.13% at $12.66 at last check Tuesday.

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