Tesla Inc TSLA researcher Troy Teslike expects the company’s EV deliveries in the first quarter to fall below 400,000 units. The EV giant’s quarterly deliveries have not fallen below 400,000 since the third quarter of 2022.
What Happened: As per Teslike, who tracks Tesla delivery and production numbers, vehicle deliveries may be negatively impacted by limitations in ramping the production of the refreshed Model Y vehicle, poor brand sentiment, and the seasonal nature of vehicle demand.
However, vehicle deliveries in the quarter could also be positively impacted by the launch of the new Model Y, the researcher noted.
For the full year 2025, Teslike expects deliveries to be below the numbers reported in 2024. Tesla reported global deliveries of 1.79 million vehicles in 2024, down from full-year deliveries of 1.81 million in 2023, marking the first decline in over a decade.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk said in October that he expects a 20-30% increase in deliveries in 2025. However, the CEO didn’t reiterate the target during the company’s fourth-quarter earnings in January. Instead, Tesla only said that it expects the vehicle business to “return to growth” in 2025.
“I interpret this to mean Tesla's target is 1,790,000 units. This looks difficult to me. My estimate is lower,” Teslike said on Tuesday.
Why It Matters: Tesla launched the refreshed version of Model Y, its best-selling vehicle, in January.
The company commenced production of the refreshed vehicle less than two weeks ago across its four vehicle factories around the world in Califonia, Texas, Shanghai, and Berlin. Deliveries of the vehicle are slated to start in March.
Musk said during the company's earnings call last month that the company will lose production in the days of retooling factories to prepare for production of the refreshed vehicle. The CEO also warned that margins will be impacted due to idle capacity and other ramp-related costs. However, these challenges will be overcome once production is ramped, he said.
Tesla last reported quarterly deliveries below 400,000 units in the third quarter of 2022. The company delivered just 365,923 vehicles in that quarter.
In the last quarter of 2024, Tesla reported 495,570 deliveries after resorting to offers and discounts across geographies.
Check out more of Benzinga’s Future Of Mobility coverage by following this link.
Read Next:
Image via Shutterstock
© 2025 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Trade confidently with insights and alerts from analyst ratings, free reports and breaking news that affects the stocks you care about.
