Zinger Key Points
- Despite a recent uptick, market odds indicate limited confidence of Trump’s statements on resolving the conflict swiftly.
- A separate Polymarket contract gauges a slightly better than even probability of Russia and Ukraine ceasing fire by July.
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Despite Donald Trump‘s claims of a productive call with Russian President Vladimir Putin and his assertion he could end the Ukraine war “quickly,” betting markets indicate skepticism about his ability to achieve a resolution within his first 90 days in office.
What Happened: Polymarket, a prediction market platform, shows a low probability of Trump ending the conflict in that timeframe.
The probability of Trump ending the war in that timeframe has risen to 34%, up 11% from prior levels.
Meanwhile, another market assessing the likelihood of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before July sits at 57%, reflecting a moderate expectation of diplomatic progress.
Trump, in a post on his social media platform Truth Social, detailed a "lengthy and highly productive" phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, discussing Ukraine, energy, artificial intelligence and the strength of the dollar.
He highlighted the historical cooperation between the two nations during World War II and emphasized the need to "stop the millions of deaths taking place in the War with Russia/Ukraine."
He further stated that he and Putin “agreed to work together, very closely, including visiting each other's nations”, and that negotiations would begin immediately.
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Trump said he plans to contact Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to inform him of the conversation, adding, “Millions of people have died in a war that would not have happened if I were President.”
The Polymarket odds suggest a cautious but growing belief that Trump could secure a peace deal within his first 90 days in office.
While still a minority view, the 34% probability marks an increase from earlier skepticism.
Despite Trump’s optimism, skepticism remains about whether he can realistically achieve a ceasefire within such a short timeframe.
Historical precedent, ongoing military escalations, and geopolitical complexities all make a rapid resolution uncertain.
Some analysts argue that Trump’s direct engagement with Putin may signal potential diplomatic shifts, but that Zelenskyy's stance and broader NATO considerations will be key factors in determining whether the conflict can be resolved soon.
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