Tesla's India Launch Will Not Help Prevent Drop In Global Deliveries In 2025, Says Researcher

Tesla Inc.’s TSLA possible expansion into the Indian market will likely not help the company’s global delivery numbers, according to researcher Troy Teslike.

What Happened: Teslike said in a post on social media platform X on Wednesday that 2025 will be another “down year” for Tesla where the company’s global deliveries fall from the numbers reported a year ago.

For 2025, Teslike expects Tesla deliveries to be 1% below the numbers reported in 2024. Tesla reported global deliveries of 1.79 million vehicles in 2024, down from full-year deliveries of 1.81 million in 2023, marking the first decline in over a decade.

Even though India has a huge population, it is a”tiny market” in Tesla’s price range, Teslike said.

Teslike was responding on X to fund manager Gary Black who expressed optimism of Tesla stock outperforming NASDAQ as global EV adoption increases to 50% by 2030.

I don't share Gary Black's optimism about Tesla's vehicle sales volume growth. Gary believes that if Tesla achieves driverless autonomy, it won't be the only company to do so, which is true, given that other companies are already offering commercial driverless services. However,… https://t.co/tyDrgyo61e
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) February 19, 2025

Why It Matters: Teslike, earlier this month, said that he expects Tesla deliveries to be below 400,000 units in the first quarter of 2025.

Tesla last reported quarterly deliveries below 400,000 units in the third quarter of 2022. The company delivered just 365,923 vehicles in that quarter.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk said in October that he expects a 20-30% increase in deliveries in 2025. However, the CEO didn't reiterate the target during the company's fourth-quarter earnings in January. Instead, Tesla only said that it expects the vehicle business to "return to growth" in 2025, implying that major delivery growth is no longer on the horizon.

However, in January, the company said that it would start production of new vehicles, including more affordable ones, in the first half of 2025.

Meanwhile, the company has also started hiring for multiple job roles in India, implying an imminent launch for the EV giant in the world’s most populated country.

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