Walmart Posts Q4 Beat, Shares Tank On Disappointing Guidance: Analysts Highlight One-Time Items

Shares of Walmart Inc WMT tanked in early trading on Friday, even after the company reported upbeat fiscal fourth-quarter results.

Here are some key analyst takeaways.

KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Bradley Thomas reiterated an Overweight rating, while lifting the price target from $100 to $105.
Piper Sandler analyst Peter Keith maintained an Overweight rating, while cutting the price target from $118 to $114.
RBC Capital Markets analyst Steven Shemesh reaffirmed an Outperform rating, while reducing the price target from $109 to $107.
BofA Securities analyst Robert Ohmes maintained a Buy rating and price target of $120.
Goldman Sachs analyst Kate McShane reaffirmed a Buy rating and price target of $106.
Raymond James analyst Bobby Griffin maintained an Outperform rating and price target of $115.

Check out other analyst stock ratings.

KeyBanc Capital Markets: Walmart reported fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of 66 cents per share, beating consensus of 65 cents per share. The upside is largely driven by higher-than-expected revenues and gross margin. Although, there was some pressure on margins related to operating expenses, Thomas said in a note. The results reflect "strong execution across the business and continued market share gains," he added.

The guidance suggests a deceleration in profitability, the analyst stated. Management's full-year guidance fell short of investor expectations. Thomas says guidance “reflects clear one-time items and is also likely to prove conservative.”

Piper Sandler: Walmart reported revenues of $180.6 billion, beating Street expectations of $180.1 billion. US comps of 4.6% came in higher than the consensus of 4.4%, Keith said. "Comp was driven by both transactions +2.8% and ticket +1.8%," he added.

Management guided to full-year earnings of $2.50-$2.60 per share, representing 2% growth at the midpoint, and falling short of consensus of $2.77 per share, the analyst stated. While the guidance represents "a much-needed reset following several quarters of expectations climbing higher and higher," excluding one-time items, the EBIT growth guidance represents an acceleration, he further wrote.

RBC Capital Markets: While Walmart reported "solid" results, its fiscal 2026 guidance "disappointed against a high bar," Shemesh said.

The operating income guide “would be +5-7% excluding a ~70 bps headwind from lapping over leap year and an ~80 bps headwind from the VIZIO acquisition," the analyst wrote. Although consensus estimates may be revised lower, fundamentally "very little has changed," he added.

BofA Securities: Walmart reported strong fiscal fourth-quarter results, Ohmes said. The company continued to gain market share across product categories, "as its strong value and digital convenience resonate," he added.

"Remodels, online SKU expansion and express delivery capabilities are driving broad-based unit strength and participation in Walmart+," the analyst wrote. Walmart's gross margins could continue expanding. Expect growth in higher-margin ancillary businesses, like digital advertising, 3P Marketplace and Fulfillment Services, he further stated.

Goldman Sachs: Walmart gained market share across geographies and income levels, with growing transaction counts and unit volumes, McShane said. In the US, market share gains were led by upper-income households. The company continues to see solid sign-up trends from Walmart+ assist, she added.

Management's operating income guidance for fiscal 2026 suggest 5%-7% growth excluding one-time impacts, which is higher than the average of 4%-6% that they have guided over the last two years, the analyst stated. "We believe WMT is well positioned to continue driving solid earnings growth in 2025" and continue improving its profitability profile, she further wrote.

Raymond James: Walmart delivered full-year earnings of $2.51 per share, versus its initial guidance range of $2.23-$2.37 per share, Griffin said. The company's profit mix continues to shift towards higher-margin businesses, he added.

There is upside to fiscal 2026 expectations from "higher-margin revenue streams, improving eCommerce economics, and easing mix headwinds as General Merchandise recovers," the analyst wrote. Although the full-year guidance missed expectations, this reflects management's conservatism and one-offs, like "FX headwinds, near-term VIZIO integration, and strategic investments in eCommerce fulfillment and marketing," he further stated.

Price Action: Shares of Walmart had declined by 2.92% to $94.37 at the time of publication on Friday.

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