Bitcoin Reserve With 1 Million BTC Could Offset $21 Trillion National Debt By 2049, Expert Says

VanEck's Head of Digital Assets Research, Matthew Sigel, has laid out a vision for how the U.S. Treasury could use Bitcoin BTC/USD to strengthen its balance sheet.

What Happened: In a post on X on Friday, Sigel highlighted VanEck's estimates that if Bitcoin appreciates at 25% annually—rising from $100,000 today to $21 million per BTC by 2049—the reserve could offset 18% of the projected U.S. debt.

This assumes debt grows at 5% annually, reaching $116 trillion by 2049 (up from $36 trillion in 2025).

While this theory is highly optimistic, it underscores Bitcoin's potential as a sovereign reserve asset and a hedge against inflationary debt expansion.

The BITCOIN Act introduced by Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis proposes the U.S. accumulate 1 million BTC over five years and hold it for at least 20 years as a strategic Bitcoin reserve.

Also Read: Bitcoin, Ethereum Face Downside Risk As Institutional Demand Fades, JPMorgan Says

Why It Matters: Polymarket now prices in a 44% chance of a U.S. National Bitcoin Reserve in 2025, up from 39% earlier this month.

Kalshi data sees a 59% probability that Trump would establish a Bitcoin Reserve if elected, up from 53.8% on Feb. 12.

Arkansas is set to become the first state to establish a Bitcoin reserve, with amendments expected by March 5. Meanwhile, Texas is preparing to debate the proposal in its Senate.

What's Next: Momentum is building for Bitcoin as a national strategic asset, with state-level initiatives paving the way for potential federal adoption.

While still speculative, institutional support and policy discussions could shape Bitcoin's future as a financial pillar in the U.S. economy.

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