Best Buy Q4 Earnings Preview: Analysts Say Upside Limited, 'Tariffs Present Downside Risk'

Retailer Best Buy Co, Inc BBY could show the growing competition from ecommerce against its physical stores when the company reports fourth-quarter financial results before market open Tuesday.

Here are the earnings estimates, what analysts are saying ahead of the report and key items to watch.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Best Buy to report fourth-quarter revenue of $13.70 billion, down from $14.65 billion in last year's fourth quarter according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company missed analyst estimates for revenue in the last quarter, while beating estimates in six of the last 10 quarters overall.

Analysts expect Best Buy to report fourth-quarter earnings per share of $2.40, down from $2.72 in last year's fourth quarter. The company missed analyst estimates for earnings per share in the last quarter, while beating estimates in nine of the last 10 quarters overall.

What Analysts Are Saying: Truist analyst Scot Ciccarelli predicts Best Buy’s quarterly sales will likely be in line with or down from estimates.

"Sales surged around Christmas and then faded hard in January," Ciccarelli said data predicts.

The analyst, who has a Hold rating and $95 price target, said Best Buy's first quarter is currently trailing expectations.

Ciccarelli said Best Buy's Enterprise division could see gross margin expansion in the quarter driven by Services and membership profitability.

"While comps are generally expected to turn + in 25 given multiple years of easy comparisons and the natural replacement cycle of CE goods, we suspect the company will remain cautious in its outlook given what appears to be a soft start in 1Q," Ciccarelli said.

The analyst said consumers are demanding value and shying away from big-ticket purchases.

"We believe that current trends and historical valuation likely limit significant incremental appreciation in the stock, unless there is a substantial upward revision in earnings."

Wedbush analyst Seth Basham said Best Buy should report a "solid quarter," but worries about the company's guidance.

"We expect a good quarter on the back of a favorable holiday shopping season and conservative guidance, but we expect soft 2025 guidance given macro uncertainties and high exposure to tariffs," Basham said.

The analyst, who has a Neutral rating and $90 price target, said Best Buy's first quarter is off to a mixed start, which could be bad during a current consumer electronics replacement and innovation cycle.

"FY 25 outlook likely below consensus given macro uncertainties and tariffs."

The analyst said tariffs and "political uncertainties" will weigh on consumers and could impact spending.

"Tariffs present downside risk."

Key Items to Watch: A Placer.ai report showed Best Buy foot traffic down 7% year-over-year in 2024. While analysts cite a soft start to the first quarter, Placer.ai shows a comeback in traffic starting in early 2025, with January visits up 0.4% year-over-year.

Black Friday and the holiday shopping season will likely be a big theme for Best Buy's results and commentary. The Placera.ai report showed Best Buy's visits up 473.1% on Black Friday compared to the company's daily average.

An Adobe holiday shopping report showed Best Buy having flat Black Friday sales on a year-over-year basis, citing losing market share to ecommerce players and a continued shift away from physical retail sales on the annual shopping holiday.

Investors and analysts will be looking for commentary on market share and how the company is positioning itself against the growth of ecommerce.

The company's guidance and commentary on tariffs will likely be the biggest factor in whether the stock trades up or down after the quarterly results.

BBY Price Action: Best Buy stock is down 3.6% to $86.65 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $69.29 to $103.71. Best Buy stock is up 2.7% year-to-date in 2025 and up 14.2% over the last year.

Read Next: