Zinger Key Points
- Intel delays Panther Lake mass production to late Q4 2025, missing holiday sales and risking second-half revenue declines.
- Intel to rely on Arrow Lake in late 2025 as AI PC competition heats up, while Panther Lake notebooks may not launch until 2026.
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U.S. chipmaker Intel Corp INTC stock is trading lower on Tuesday. Based on his industry survey, KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo noted that Intel has postponed the mass production timeline for Panther Lake (PTL) from early September 2025 to the mid-fourth quarter of 2025.
Given the typical 2-4 week gap between chip and finished product shipments, PTL notebooks may not become widely available until 2026.
Also Read: Intel Gains Traction With 18A Process As Nvidia, Broadcom Consider Manufacturing Contracts
This implies that Intel will miss the crucial year-end holiday sales season in 2025, and second-half 2025 revenue and profit will face downside risks.
While Intel has only publicly stated that PTL is scheduled for mass production in the second half of 2025 (keeping this delay within their communicated timeline), such a decision would not be made without significant production issues. This delay will impact Intel’s second-half 2025 revenue, profits, and, most importantly, organizational morale and supply chain trust.
Defect density is just one factor affecting chip yield and mass production capability. The shipment schedules of PC/NB brands, ODMs, and EMS providers serve as critical indicators for assessing the production status of Intel’s 18A process.
Based on Ming-Chi Kuo’s survey of Intel’s advanced-node consumable shipments, third-quarter 2025 figures show no significant changes from current levels, which could support the delay of Intel PTL.
In the second half of 2025, Intel will primarily rely on Arrow Lake (ARL) to compete against Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. AMD and Qualcomm Inc. QCOM. With ARL offering less than 40 TOPs and brands showing limited enthusiasm for Lunar Lake (LNL), Intel appears disadvantaged in the second-half 2025 AI PC competition.
More aggressive brands have planned to adopt the limited Qualification Sample (QS) PTL chips expected in late September for specific high-end models to gain a time-to-market advantage. However, given the limited QS shipments, Intel will benefit minimally.
Until Intel successfully ships its chips manufactured on the 18A, it will struggle to gain the trust of external IC design customers and secure their substantial resource investments for 18A chip development collaboration.
Price Action: INTC stock closed lower by 6.20% to $21.36 on Tuesday.
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