Oil Prices Hit Multi-Year Lows As OPEC+ Production, Tariffs Weigh On Market

West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices have fallen 6% over the past month to reach multi-year lows on Wednesday. Several factors, including trade policies and OPEC+ production increases, contributed to the sharp decline.

U.S. Tariffs: President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on energy imports from Canada and Mexico disrupted trade flows and raised concerns about slower global growth and reduced energy demand. Investors reacted positively to a one-month exemption for automakers, which temporarily lifted market sentiment on Wednesday.

Supply and Demand Imbalances: EIA data showed U.S. crude inventories rose more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles have fallen, adding to oversupply concerns.

OPEC+ Production Increases: Earlier this week OPEC+ announced plans to raise oil production starting in April, marking the first increase since 2022. The decision exacerbated oversupply fears and put downward pressure on oil prices.

"There is a bit of a concern in the market that the OPEC+ decision is the start of a series of more monthly supply additions, but the statement from OPEC+ reiterates an approach in bringing back barrels only if the market can absorb them," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said, per OilPrice.com.

Geopolitical Factors: Ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, including President Trump's pause on aid for Ukraine, raised speculation of potential Russian sanctions relief and added further pressure on crude markets.

Crude Oil Price Action

WTI crude oil futures are trading 0.25% lower after attempting to rebound early Thursday.

"The sharp dip in oil prices below the key $70.00 level may prompt a slight breather in today’s session, as technical conditions attempt to stabilize from oversold territory," IG analyst Yeap Jun Rong told Reuters.

"However, recovery momentum remains fragile, with unfavourable supply-demand dynamics being a key overhang for bullish sentiment," Rong added.

The United States Oil Fund USO, which tracks WTI futures contracts, was down 0.45% at $71.10, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund XLE, which holds oil company stocks, was down 0.64% at $85.18 at the time of publication Wednesday.

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