Agilon Health Adjusts To Recovery Phase, Analyst Is Cautious On Near-Term Fundamentals

J.P. Morgan analyst Lisa C. Gill, with a Neutral rating, updated estimates for Agilon Health, Inc. AGL following fourth-quarter results posted last month.

Last month, the company reported a fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted EPS of $(0.26), missing the consensus estimate of $(0.23). However, sales for the quarter totaled $1.52 billion, which is in line with expectations.

The analyst’s revised estimates reflect an updated outlook on AGL’s recovery timeline based on management’s recent commentary.

With 2025 expected to be a year of transition, the company aims to address specific challenges while navigating another year of high trends, positioning itself to achieve its targets for 2026/2027, adds the analyst.

The analyst estimates revenue of $1.502 billion (vs. $1.503 billion consensus) and adjusted EBITDA of $16 million (in line with consensus) in the first quarter of FY25.

For FY25, Gill revised the revenue estimate to $5.926 billion (vs. $5.928 billion consensus) from $6.453 billion earlier while adjusted EBITDA loss estimate remains unchanged at $77 million (vs. consensus loss of $78 million).

For FY26, the analyst updated the revenue estimate to $6.594 billion (vs. consensus mean of $6.665 billion) from $7.319 billion prior and adjusted EBITDA loss estimate changes to $23 million (vs. consensus loss of $22 million) from loss of $10 million prior.

Investors can gain exposure to the stock via Fidelity Disruptive Medicine ETF FMED and SPDR S&P Health Care Services ETF XHS.

Price Action: AGL shares are down 0.48% at $4.18 at the last check Tuesday.

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