Dan Loeb's Portfolio Feels The Strain As Tesla, Amazon, PG&E Lose Ground

In February, Third Point Investors Limited's share price returned 1.2%, reflecting a narrowing of the discount to NAV from 22.3% to 19.6%.

Meanwhile, Third Point Investors Limited returned -2.3% on a NAV basis, underperforming the MSCI World Index (-0.7%) and the S&P 500 Index (-1.3%) for the month.

Three of Dan Loeb‘s key holdings contributed to February’s underperformance:

Tesla, Inc. TSLA shares dropped around 40% compared to Vanguard Consumer Discretion ETF VCR decline of about 14% YTD.

Third Point LLC held 500,000 shares as of the fourth quarter of 2024, an increase from 400,000 shares in the third quarter of 2024.

Major events:

• In January, Tesla reported fourth-quarter revenue of $25.71 billion, which missed a consensus of $27.26 billion and EPS of 73 cents, came below estimate of 76 cents.
• According to the Wall Street consensus, Tesla is expected to record 422,000 deliveries, up 9% year-on-year in March. However, Gene Munster, the managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management has highlighted in an X post that the “whisper number” stands at 375,000, down 3% year-on-year.
• Mizuho analysts cut price forecasts from $515 to $430, citing weakening demand and revising delivery forecasts to 1.8 million and 2.3 million for 2025 and 2026, respectively. Analysts also noted significant underperformance in the U.S., China, and Europe last month.

Amazon.com, Inc. AMZN stock has fallen 12% YTD compared to a decrease of 3.7% in ProShares Online Retail ETF ONLN.

Third Point LLC lowered its stake from 3.70 million shares in the third quarter of 2024. to 3.45 million shares in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Major events:

• On Feb. 6, the company reported fourth-quarter net sales of $187.8 billion, up 10% year-over-year (Y/Y), which beat a Street consensus estimate of $187.3 billion. EPS of $1.86 also beat a consensus estimate of $1.48.
• RBC Capital analyst Brad Erickson raised the price forecast from $255 to $265 and said, "While the name is crowded and the AI ‘spend money to make money' debate will undoubtedly continue, the combo of AWS's high margin growth and further network cost efficiencies have the company poised to continue growing earnings at a level supportive of this valuation." 

Pacific Gas & Electric Co. PCG shares dipped around 14% so far in 2025 compared to VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF NLR decline of 7.8%.

Loeb cut the stake from 49.75 million shares in the third quarter of 2024 to 48.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Major events:

• In February, the company reported fourth-quarter results, with an adjusted EPS of $0.31, which was in line with the consensus.
• PG&E raised its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance to $1.48 – $1.52 from its previous estimate of $1.47 – $1.51, vs. the consensus estimate of $1.49.
• The company targets a dividend payout ratio of around 20% of core earnings by 2028.
• Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Byrd downgraded PG&E from Equal-Weight to Underweight and lowered the price forecast from $20 to $16.5.
• The company stated that it is planning to support approximately 5.5 gigawatts (GW) of new data center energy demand over the next decade. 

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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.