Goldman Sachs Predicts $305 Billion AI Windfall While Adoption Remains Slow

Wall Street’s tech giants are pouring billions into artificial intelligence infrastructure, driving a massive semiconductor revenue boom, but beyond Silicon Valley's elite, most companies are still fumbling through the early stages of adoption, according to Goldman Sachs.

In a note shared Monday, Goldman Sachs analysts Sarah Dong and Joseph Briggs said that AI-related investments in chips and hardware are set to add $305 billion in revenue by the end of 2025. That includes a $200-billion revenue growth for semiconductor firms, plus a $105-billion boost for other hardware enablers.

Despite the flood of investments, AI isn't moving the needle in GDP figures. Goldman said that's because the Bureau of Economic Analysis classifies semiconductors and cloud services as intermediate inputs, which don't directly show up in growth metrics.

AI Broader Adoption Still Limited

Only 7.4% of U.S. firms currently use AI in their operations, according to Goldman Sachs, up modestly from 6.1% in the fourth quarter of 2024.

Large companies—defined as those with over 250 employees—are at the forefront of this trend. Currently, 12% are already using AI, and that number is expected to rise to 17% by mid-year.

“We continue to see higher adoption rates among subsectors with greater exposure of work tasks to AI automation,” the analysts said.

The biggest growth is expected in computing and electronics manufacturing, where work tasks are more likely to be automated by AI. Other fast-moving sectors include web search, broadcasting, and publishing.

Goldman added that while new AI tools are being developed and tested, very few businesses have been able to measure clear productivity gains or returns on investment.

Labor Market Impact Still Small, Productivity Gains Are Large In Selective Areas

Fears of AI-triggered mass layoffs haven't played out. Goldman said there have been no explicit mentions of AI in recent job cut announcements.

While AI-related roles now account for 23% of IT job postings, they account for just 1.3% of total job listings.

“We continue to see large impacts on labor productivity in the limited areas where generative AI has been deployed,” Goldman Sachs wrote.

The Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF AIQ is flat in 2025, after rising 24% in 2024 and 55% in 2023.

The iShares Semiconductor ETF SOXX has fallen 5% year to date, after notching a 85% cumulative gain over the last two years.

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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.