Japanese Automakers Face $29 Billion Tariff Hit, Nissan, Mazda, Subaru Most At Risk, Says Analyst

The newly imposed 25% auto tariff threatens to disrupt the global automotive industry, with analysts warning of sharp price increases and declining sales.

Goldman Sachs estimates that imported vehicle prices could rise by $5,000 to $15,000, while even U.S.-built cars could see cost hikes of $3,000 to $8,000 due to foreign-made parts.

Here’s what analysts have predicted so far:

According to JPMorgan's Akira Kishimoto, Japanese automakers could face a potential hit of 4.46 trillion yen (about $29.44 billion), with Nissan Motor Co. Ltd. NSANY, Mazda Motor Corp. MZDAY and Subaru FUJHY among the most vulnerable due to their reliance on imported vehicles. Toyota Motor Corp TM remains JPMorgan's top pick, given its resilience and strong fundamentals, while Suzuki Motor SZKMY and Isuzu Motors ISUZY are also favored among mid-tier manufacturers.

Read Also: Trump’s 25% Tariff Set To Hike Imported Car Prices Up To $15,000 Higher, Goldman Sachs Warns
RBC Capital Markets’ Tom Narayan warns that German automakers like Mercedes-Benz Group MBGYY and BMW Group BMWKY are at high risk, though potential retaliatory tariffs from Europe could deter further escalation. Tesla Inc TSLA may benefit due to its U.S.-based production, while Ferrari NV RACE is expected to pass costs onto its high-end buyers.
JPMorgan autos analyst Ryan Brinkman has slashed price targets for major U.S. automakers, cutting General Motors Co GM by 17% to $53 from $64, Ford Motor Co F by 15% to $11 from $13, and Ferrari by 12% to $460 from $525, citing heightened earnings risk.

With uncertainty around auto demand and the potential for sales fluctuations, investors remain cautious as the industry assesses the economic impact of these sweeping tariffs.

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