VanEck Confirms China and Russia Settling Energy Trades in Bitcoin — A Major Step in De-Dollarization

Bitcoin has become more than just a speculative asset; it is now evolving into a functional monetary tool, especially in economies seeking to bypass the U.S. dollar and reduce exposure to U.S.-led financial systems. Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel said in VanEck’s report released on April 8, “China and Russia have reportedly begun settling some energy transactions in Bitcoin and other digital assets,” a significant step that further drives the narrative of de-dollarization.

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The global financial landscape has been changing rapidly, with the Trump administration's April 2 tariff package reigniting trade tensions. The tariffs, targeting imports from China and the European Union, have heightened risks of monetary and geopolitical fragmentation. VanEck notes that this policy shift "might be bullish for Bitcoin" as it could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut rates. The report explains that if tariffs affect GDP without causing a fresh inflation spike, it may "reintroduce the liquidity conditions under which Bitcoin has historically excelled." This sets the stage for Bitcoin to benefit from an environment where liquidity is more favorable and interest in digital assets continues to rise.

In recent developments, China and Russia’s decision to settle energy trades using Bitcoin signals a shift towards crypto adoption on the global stage. VanEck's report emphasizes that this is no longer a theoretical concept but a tangible reality: "Bolivia has announced plans to import electricity using crypto. And French energy utility EDF is exploring whether it can mine Bitcoin with surplus electricity currently exported to Germany." These examples are indicative of a broader shift as nations begin using Bitcoin not just as a store of value but also as a tool to circumvent the dollar-based financial system.

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The weaponization of trade and financial infrastructure, largely led by the U.S., has fueled this movement. Countries increasingly seek neutral settlement systems that avoid dependency on the dollar. VanEck highlights that Bitcoin's growing adoption by nations like China and Russia "could accelerate adoption of crypto as an alternative settlement layer," marking a crucial shift in global trade dynamics.

Despite recent fluctuations in the market, Bitcoin has outperformed major indices like the Nasdaq across various timeframes. While slower growth alone may not be a bullish signal for Bitcoin, the potential policy response to trade tensions could create an environment where Bitcoin thrives. In particular, any dovish shifts in Fed policy—such as rate cuts and rising liquidity—could benefit Bitcoin, especially in an era of geopolitical fragmentation.

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Looking ahead, VanEck recommends keeping an eye on the U.S. Dollar Index and sustained dollar weakness, as this could further strengthen the "Bitcoin-as-hedge" narrative. The report also points to Bitcoin's decoupling from traditional macro sensitivities, noting that "rising yields did not trigger a wave of forced liquidations or volatility in crypto markets," suggesting that Bitcoin may no longer react the same way to shifts in traditional financial markets as it did in the past.

As the world shifts towards digital assets and away from reliance on traditional financial systems, Bitcoin's role in the global economy is becoming increasingly clear. Whether it's energy trades in Bitcoin or countries looking for alternatives to the dollar, the future of Bitcoin is intertwined with the global push for de-dollarization.

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