Banking On Less: Truist Trims Price Forecasts For JPMorgan, Wells Fargo After Mixed Signals

Truist Securities analyst John McDonald slashed price forecasts and updated estimates for big banks JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM and Wells Fargo & Company WFC following their first-quarter earnings release last week.

JPM: The bank reported a net revenueof $46 billion (+8% Y/Y). It beat the consensus of $44.1 billion and EPS of $5.07, exceeding the consensus of $4.62.

McDonald maintained the 2025 earnings per share estimate at $18.35. He also trimmed the 2026 forecast to $19.30 (a reduction of 25 cents).

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The analyst says the 2025 revision reflects an upward adjustment in revenue expectations as he aligns the net interest income (NII) estimate more closely with JPMorgan's ~$94.5 billion guidance and factor in stronger anticipated market performance.

However, the analyst adds that these gains are expected to be partially offset by weaker projections for investment banking and asset/wealth management fees.

On the other hand, the 2026 EPS revision primarily stems from expected slower growth in fee income and increased provision expenses, says the analyst.

Consequently, McDonald cut the price forecast from $264 to $251 while maintaining a Hold rating.

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WFC: The U.S. banking giant reported GAAP EPS of $1.39, beating the consensus of $1.34 and revenue of $20.15 billion vs. analyst’s expectation of $20.75 billion.

The analyst revised the 2025 EPS estimate downward to $5.65 (a reduction of 35 cents) and lowered the 2026 EPS forecast to $6.60 (down 40 cents vs the prior estimate).

These adjustments reflect expectations of flat year-over-year NII in 2025 due to lower interest rate assumptions, as well as softer market-sensitive revenue streams, particularly from venture capital/private equity, wealth management, and investment banking, adds the analyst.

McDonald has a slightly more cautious stance on credit quality. Net charge-off (NCO) assumptions are up from 0.45% in first quarter to 0.64% in 2026. A $300 million reserve was built in the second quarter.

Consequently, the analyst reduced the price target from $84 to $73, while keeping a Buy rating.

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