Steve Jobs Said 14 Years Ago iPhones Would Never Be Made In The U.S.: 'Those Jobs Aren't Coming Back'—Now Tariffs Could Bump Price To $3,500

Apple's AAPL biggest iPhone headache might not be a chip shortage — it's tariffs. President Donald Trump's aggressive new round of China tariffs has temporarily spared electronics like smartphones and laptops, but that grace period is short-lived. 

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Sunday told ABC's "This Week" that Apple and other tech companies should expect new semiconductor-specific tariffs "in probably a month or two." 

Apple's dependence on China is massive. Roughly 90% of iPhones are made there. As The Guardian reports, if tariffs stick and Apple doesn't shift production, the iPhone 16 Pro Max could jump from $1,199 to $2,150 — or even $3,500 if production were forced into the U.S.

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Ironically, this was a debate 14 years ago.

At a 2011 Silicon Valley dinner with then-President Barack Obama, Apple CEO Steve Jobs gave a blunt answer when asked what it would take to make iPhones in America: "Those jobs aren't coming back." That quote, reported by The New York Times, captured the stark reality of globalized manufacturing. 

It wasn't just about labor costs. At the time of the 2011 article, experts estimated that paying American wages would only add about $65 to each iPhone.

The real issue was China's supply chain dominance. "You need a million screws? That factory is a block away," a former Apple executive told the Times.

In that same dinner, Jobs said that Apple could potentially bring some high-skill manufacturing to the U.S. if the government helped train engineers. But he was clear: America didn't have the mid-level engineering workforce or production speed needed to compete.

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Current Apple CEO Tim Cook has tried to soften that stance. Apple in Februay announced plans to invest $500 billion in the U.S. over four years, building a new factory in Texas and expanding teams across 10 states. But most iPhones are still made abroad.

Even back in 2012, Cook pledged $100 million to build some Mac computers in the U.S. While this move garnered attention, analysts viewed it as a strategic decision rather than a significant shift in Apple's manufacturing strategy. Tom Dinges, a senior supply chain analyst at IHS, told Wired the impact would be minimal across Apple's global operations.

But more than a decade later, the conditions Cook once hedged against may be catching up.

Apple has started ramping up production in India, aiming for 25 million units this year, but China remains its manufacturing heart. As Trump pushes tariffs, Apple may be forced to test Jobs' theory — whether those jobs really are gone for good, or whether a $3,500 iPhone is what it takes to bring them home.

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