Rare Bullish Signal Just Flashed On Wall Street: Will It Power S&P 500 To 6,000?

A rare and historically reliable bullish signal just flashed on Wall Street, and if history is any guide, the next few months could deliver double-digit gains for the S&P 500.

In a note shared last week, Bank of America technical analyst Paul Ciana said the latest "breadth thrust" marked the fourth bullish signal for the S&P 500 this year, potentially clearing the runway for a move toward 6,000 by year-end.

What's a Breadth Thrust And Why It Matters

A breadth thrust is a technical indicator used to identify the beginning of a new bull market or the acceleration of an existing uptrend. Rather than focusing on index levels, it looks at market breadth, which refers to the percentage of stocks participating in a rally.

“A breadth thrust means market breadth has improved from weak to strong over a short period of time,” Ciana wrote.

The most widely accepted definition comes from financial analyst Marty Zweig, who stated that a breadth thrust occurs when the 10-day moving average of advancing stocks divided by the total number of stocks rises from below 40% to above 61.5% within 10 trading days.

That happened on April 24, when the S&P 500 closed at 5,484.77, confirming the 32nd such signal since 1927.

"Since 1939, the S&P 500 was higher 100% of the time — 16 out of 16 — following a breadth thrust in both 130 and 190 trading days," Ciana said, adding that average returns stood at 17.1% and 19.6%, respectively.

“If the SPX falls below 5,484.77 in the second quarter – a risk from the death cross signal – then the breadth thrust signal favors buying,” the analyst added.

What History Tells Us About Breadth Thrusts

Since 1939, breadth thrusts have been extremely reliable forward indicators. The table below summarizes how the S&P 500 performed after the last 16 such signals:

Four Bullish Signals Light The Way

Bank of America now counts four recent technical indicators supporting a positive outlook for stocks, despite what it calls a “cyclical bear period” resembling the choppy years of 2022, 2018, 2015 and 2005.

The signals include:

• A VIX volatility index spike above 45.
• An NYSE 90% up day, where 90% of stocks advanced on a substantial volume (occurred on April 9, 2025).
• An SPX death cross, a traditionally bearish event that in this case sets up a contrarian buy-the-dip opportunity.
• The April 24 breadth thrust, now considered a powerful bullish confirmation.

Despite these bullish signals, the S&P 500 is still grappling with technical hurdles. The index currently trades below its 200-day simple moving average, which sits around 5,746.

Ciana indicated that a “cup and handle-like” base may be forming, with the potential to lift the index back toward its year-to-date highs. Yet, a drop below “the bull gap at 5,356-5,309” could invalidate this setup, making near-term market action crucial.

A push above 5,500-5,571 would favor a bullish wave count, projecting the index toward 6,000.

On Tuesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY traded at $550, or about 10% below its all-time high of $613.

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