Neutral Territory For Occidental? JPMorgan Weighs Strong Q1 Against Future Challenges

JPMorgan analyst Arun Jayaram anticipates a neutral market reaction to Occidental Petroleum Corp. OXY earnings.

Jayaram explained in a Thursday research note that positive results, debt reduction, and cost-saving initiatives were partly offset by potential risks to full-year guidance related to U.S. operating expenses and Gulf of Anadarko (GoA) volumes.

Jayaram’s forecast comes after Occidental reported adjusted EPS of 87 cents per share, which beat the analyst consensus estimate of 77 cents and revenue of $6.84 billion, which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $6.89 billion.

The company sees production of 1,377 – 1,417 Mboed in the second quarter and 1,390 – 1,440 Mboed in FY25.

Occidental also slashed the mid-point of 2025 capital guidance by $200 million and domestic operating costs by $150 million, on continued operational efficiency gains and schedule optimization in the Permian and Gulf of America.

So far, second-quarter 2025 guidance slightly trails JPMorgan expectations.

Jayaram notes that Occidental anticipates total production volumes in the GoA to reach 142 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (MBoe/d) for 2025.

Achieving this target would necessitate a significant increase in production during the second half of the year to approximately 158 MBoe/d, which is about 26% higher than the projected first-half 2025 average of 126 MBoe/d, adds the analyst.

Jayaram considers this a challenging goal, especially given the reduced capital allocation to offshore projects.

The analyst estimates the second-quarter total production of 1,413 Mboed (vs. street view of 1,420 Mboed) and FY25 production of 1,415 Mboed (same as consensus).

Investors can gain exposure to the stock via Texas Capital Funds Trust Texas Capital Texas Oil Index ETF OILT and First Trust Nasdaq Oil & Gas ETF FTXN.

Price Action: OXY shares are up 6.11% at $41.40 at the last check on Thursday.

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