Coinbase Could See Up To $16B Net Inflows After S&P 500 Entry: Bernstein

Bernstein on Tuesday issued a bullish note on Coinbase Global Inc. COIN following its inclusion in the S&P 500, projecting as much as $16 billion in potential capital inflows to the stock from both passive and active investment vehicles.

What Happened: The note arrives just a day after the exchange announced that Coinbase will replace Discover Financial Services DFS in the index on May 19, making it the first cryptocurrency-focused company to join the benchmark.

In its analysis, Bernstein estimates that passive S&P 500-linked ETFs and non-ETF funds could drive approximately $9 billion in inflows into Coinbase.

An additional $7 billion is projected from active managers benchmarked to the S&P 500 who may now be compelled to take positions in the stock.

Coinbase currently holds a 0.1% weight in the S&P 500 and represents about 0.7% of the financials sector by index allocation.

The note, authored by analyst Gautam Chhugani, described the development as a “dramatic turnaround” for a company that was recently entangled in litigation with the SEC, a case that has since been dropped.

It also frames Coinbase’s entry into the index as symbolic of the broader shift in financial markets toward crypto legitimacy.

Bernstein reiterated its Outperform rating and maintained a price target of $310, citing strong earnings potential and continued dominance in U.S. crypto infrastructure.

Also Read: Cardano Up 23% In 7 Days As Co-Founder Charles Hoskinson Explores Privacy-Focused Stablecoin

Why It Matters: Coinbase currently trades at around $207 and has a market capitalization of approximately $53 billion.

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The firm is forecast to grow earnings per share at a 38% compound annual growth rate, with Bernstein projecting 2026 EPS that is 70% above market consensus.

Coinbase went public in April 2021 via a direct listing and now processes over $1.5 billion in average daily trading volume, according to the report.

The firm manages over $320 billion in assets and serves nearly 10 million monthly active users.

Coinbase's addition to the S&P 500 becomes effective before trading opens on May 19, replacing Discover Financial Services.

It marks the first time a crypto-native firm enters the benchmark index, which includes companies like Apple, Microsoft and Amazon.

Coinbase originally listed on Nasdaq via direct listing in April 2021 and has since become the leading U.S.-regulated exchange for digital assets.

Its S&P 500 inclusion is expected to significantly broaden its exposure to institutional and passive capital flows.

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