Teladoc's Outlook Clouds As JPMorgan Points To Uncertainty In Behavioral Health, Margin Pressure

JPMorgan analyst Lisa C. Gill maintained a Neutral rating on Teladoc Health, Inc TDOC on Thursday with a price target of $9, down from the prior $11.

On April 30, Teladoc reported first-quarter revenue of $629.4 million, down 3%, beating the consensus estimate of $619.29 million. The company reported a first-quarter loss of 53 cents per share, missing analyst estimates for a loss of 34 cents per share.

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Teladoc expects second-quarter revenue of $614 million-$633 million and full-year revenue of $2.47 billion-$2.58 billion. Analysts are anticipating full-year revenue of $2.52 billion.

The company also lowered its full-year earnings outlook. Teladoc anticipates a 2025 loss of $0.90-$1.40 per share, down from prior guidance for a loss of $0.50-$1.10 per share. Analysts are forecasting a loss of 93 cents per share.

Following first-quarter earnings, Gill updated her Teladoc model. The analyst’s fiscal 2025 revenue estimate decreased to $2.516 billion from $2.520 billion prior, and she modeled an adjusted EBITDA of $282 million (down from $294 million prior).

Gill lowered her fiscal 2026 revenue estimate to $2.547 billion from $2.560 billion prior, and her fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate moved to $304 million (down from $314 million prior).

Gill established a December 2025 price target of $9, based on an EV/adjusted EBITDA multiple of ~6.5 times her 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate. The ~6.5 times multiple represents a sizable discount to Teladoc’s pre-pandemic historical average multiple.

The analyst pointed to the current challenges and uncertainty in the DTC behavioral health business and an uncertain macroeconomic environment. While she noted that the current valuation for Teladoc reflects much of the uncertainty around BetterHelp, she acknowledged that the current lack of visibility creates a near-term overhang.

Balanced against these current challenges and uncertainties, Gill pointed to a sizable TAM with a significant runway for growth based on continued virtual care adoption, a leading competitive position, expansion opportunities (including the rollout of the company’s Primary360 offering), an attractive margin profile, and a strong balance sheet (the company is EBITDA and cash flow positive).

TDOC Price Action: Teladoc shares were up 2.4% at $7.43 at last check on Friday.

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