Beyond The “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act
Why Musk's Spending Cuts Never Could Have Been In The OBBBA…
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is travelling under the Senate's budget‑reconciliation rules, which means it can extend the 2017 Trump tax cuts and fund the border‑wall/ICE build‑out with 51 votes, but it can't touch most discretionary spending.
…But They Can Go In A Separate Recission Bill
The spending cuts Elon Musk wants—mainly claw‑backs of unobligated COVID/IRA money and other DOGE findings—belong in a rescission bill that moves under the 1974 Impoundment Control Act. The good news is that vehicle also needs only 51 votes because debate is capped at ten hours and isn't subject to a filibuster.
The only pieces that still face a 60‑vote Senate cloture hurdle are new authorizing or appropriations titles (think space‑launch bonuses, Starlink rural‑broadband contracts, or permitting‑reform riders).
A Potential Legislative Roadmap Forward
A Color‑Keyed Roadmap
| Legend | |
|---|---|
| 🔵 = Goes in OBBBA reconciliation (51 votes) | |
| 🟡 = Standalone rescission bill (51 votes) | |
| 🟢 = Separate authorization/appropriations bill (60 votes) |
| # | Provision + key details | 🗳️ Bucket | Why Musk Signs On | Why Trump & base Sign On |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deficit‑neutral permanent TCJA extenders — keep 21 % corp rate, restore SALT cap, repeal carried‑interest loophole, limit large firms' R&D amortization if they don’t reinvest in U.S. facilities. | 🔵 | Plugs ~⅔ of the CBO‑scored $2.4 T hole he called a "disgusting abomination". | "Made tax cuts permanent," keeps SALT cap as anti‑blue‑state move. |
| 2 | "Made‑in‑America Advanced Manufacturing Credit" — tech‑neutral production credit (batteries, semis, AI servers, next‑gen ICE) with ≥ 60 % U.S. content. | 🔵 | Restores factory incentives for Tesla Gigafactories & SpaceX Starship. | Rewards domestic factories, not "globalist green boondoggles". |
| 3 | Star‑Span space & rural‑broadband title — 10‑yr, 100 % bonus depreciation for U.S. launch pads; bulk DoD/USDA contracts with Starlink if ≥ 20 % cheaper than fiber. | 🟢 | Direct wins for SpaceX & Starlink; Texas / Florida job growth. | "Space dominance" + "patriot internet" messaging. |
| 4 | DOGE rescissions — $250 B claw‑back of unobligated COVID / IRA funds + 1 % across‑the‑board cut in non‑defense, non‑VA outlays. | 🟡 | Visible spending offset to tax cuts. | "Largest domestic cut since Reagan," spares Social Security & Medicare. |
| 5 | Time‑Is‑Money permitting reform — 180‑day NEPA clock for strategic projects (EV plants, spaceports, LNG, border wall). | 🟢 | Shaves years off Tesla/Boring/SpaceX timelines. | Faster wall builds and energy projects; deregulation win. |
| 6 | Crypto & free‑speech sweeteners — $600 de‑minimis CGT on crypto, three‑yr zero‑CGT on U.S.‑mined tokens; 5 % excise on agencies demanding viewpoint takedowns. | 🔵 | X users get crypto relief; reinforces Musk's free‑speech brand. | Anti‑censorship + pro‑crypto populism fits MAGA culture. |
| 7 | Pronatal / blue‑collar offsets — index $2 k Child Tax Credit to CPI; above‑the‑line deduction for skilled‑trade credentials. | 🔵 | Musk (father of 11) likes pronatal policy; tech‑friendly "skills‑first". | "Family‑first" tax relief and trades‑training boost. |
Best Sequence For Trump and Musk
- Transmit the rescission message first.
Starts the ICA's 45‑day clock and lets Musk claim a tangible deficit win up front. - Move the OBBBA reconciliation title next.
Lower baseline deficit (post‑rescission) makes the tax bill look less scary to fiscal hawks. - Attach the 🟢 items to a must‑pass vehicle (NDAA, omnibus) later in the summer.
By then both men have pocketed early victories, and centrists face pressure to deliver the 10 Democratic votes needed for cloture.
To Sum Up:
| Step | Vehicle | Vote threshold | Purpose |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rescission bill (ICA) | 51 votes, debate capped | Claw back unobligated COVID/IRA money and score the spending cuts Musk wants. |
| 2 | One Big Beautiful Bill Act (reconciliation) | 51 votes | Make the middle class TCJA tax cuts permanent, add the tech‑neutral manufacturing credit, crypto/freedom add‑ons, etc. |
| 3 | Authorizing/appropriations titles (e.g., "Star‑Span," permitting reform) | 60 votes | Space‑launch/broadband incentives and NEPA streamlining that fall outside reconciliation rules. |
Trading The Trump–Elon Rift
Elon unloaded on Trump yesterday, including implying that Trump had sex with some of Jeffrey Epstein’s underage girls.
The biggest victim of Elon’s attacks on Trump on Thursday ended up being Tesla, Inc. TSLA shareholders–shares Tesla of cratered nearly 15 % intraday,
In the Portfolio Armor Trading Substack we used the downdraft to buy the $300‑strike TSLA calls expiring today for $2.37. If reports of a White House/Musk détente pan out, any relief rally in TSLA today—or even a simple mean‑reversion bounce from Thursday's oversold close at $284.70—should juice those calls.
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